South Carolina vs Mississippi State: 2022-23 basketball game preview, TV

South Carolina and Mississippi State are two teams that are at the bottom of the SEC standings. Which of them will get the victory?

TV schedule: Tuesday, January 31st, 6:30 PM ET. SEC Network

Arena: Colonial Life Arena, Columbia, South Carolina

It’s a battle of two teams that are scratching and clawing to get out of the bottom of the SEC in Columbia on Tuesday night.

South Carolina and Mississippi State are both coming off very different Saturdays. South Carolina blew a ten-point second-half lead against Georgia on the road to prevent them from getting their second SEC win of the season. Mississippi State, on the other hand, pulled off a shocking upset of TCU at home during the SEC-Big 12 Challenge.

Sure, Mike Miles got hurt and that made TCU a different team. But Bulldogs big man Tolu Smith stepped up and had his best performance of the season. His 27 points and 13 rebounds were massive but his good free throw shooting performance (made five of his six attempts) also helped make a difference in a tight ball game.

The Bulldogs have some mojo coming into this game and South Carolina is still trying to figure out how to finish tightly contested games or just find anything encouraging on the season. It’s a big game for both teams because MSU can’t afford to lose hardly any more games if they even want to be slightly considered on the bubble and South Carolina needs to find even the slightest bit of positive growth to feel good about moving forward with head coach Lamont Paris.

MSU is a fat 9.5 point favorite coming into this game. How can South Carolina pull off the shocker? Here are the three biggest keys to the game.

Manufacture second chance opportunities

I know this is the case in most games. Offensive rebounding is huge for any team (duh), but in this match-up, it might be the only thing South Carolina can exploit offensively.

For the season, Mississippi State has been incredible defensively. They force bad shots, they turn teams over and they send opponents to the line at a very low rate. Per KenPom, they are top 22 in the nation in all of those elements. But there’s one key element to their defense that won’t be considered elite: defensive rebounding. They rank only seventh in the conference in keeping teams off the offensive glass. The Gamecocks haven’t been great in conference play on the boards but for the season, they have been good enough to grab 33% of their missed shots.

If they want any shot to win in this game, the bare minimum will be for players like Benjamin Bosmans-Verdonk or Josh Gray to keep possessions alive and increase their already slim margin for error against this defensive unit.

Meechie Johnson needs to bail them out

GG Jackson is clearly the star player for South Carolina and he will receive a majority of the defensive attention. The Bulldogs already do a marvelous job of team defense, it will take another perimeter shot-making threat to alleviate some of that pressure.

The best candidate for that? Meechie Johnson. He made six of his ten threes against Kentucky in their big upset earlier this season. Since that game, he’s only made seven of his 35 attempts (20%).

Johnson can get hot at times. The Kentucky game was one example but in their games against Georgetown and Western Kentucky, he made big three-pointers to help them win those games. If Johnson is to be a respectable sidekick to Jackson, he needs to bail the offense out with tough shot-making from the arc and make them respect him as an outside threat. If he can’t, life will be hell for Jackson and the rest of the offense.

Dare them to beat you at the free throw line late.

I’m thinking outside the box here. If MSU has about a ten-point lead in the final ten minutes or so, I’d think about employing a classic yet annoying strategy to try to get myself back into the game: excessive fouling.

The Bulldogs are an atrocious free-throw shooting team. They’re 62% on the season (ranked 355th nationally) and in conference play, have only made 54.6% of their attempts (dead last in the SEC). In their true road games this season, they’re shooting slightly over 56% from the line.

Coach Paris seriously should consider the “Hack-A-Dawg” strategy late to avoid slipping out of contention. It might seem desperate, but you won’t play many teams who are this miserable at the free throw line. Smith, MSU’s star center, makes only 54% of his free throws. He would be the main target to foul because of the futility and the advantage of keeping him out of the lane and in a less advantageous spot for an offensive rebound. Other players to consider if MSU coach Chris Jans decides to take him out of the game are Will McNair (57%), Cameron Matthews (65%) or DJ Jeffries (55%).

South Carolina struggles to score in most games. Many teams struggle to score against Mississippi State. This is a combination of my lack of faith in the Gamecocks to get quality secondary shot-making or take advantage of the offensive rebounding opportunity. Smith goes for another 20-10 type double-double and the Bulldogs get their second SEC win of the season.

Prediction: Mississippi State 68, South Carolina 55