College basketball predictions: Two long-shot Final Four bets ahead of March Madness

Selection Sunday is only a week away, so bracketology and bubble talk are the hot topics this month. 

Some sneaky future value can be found around this time of year. 

Here are two underdog teams I think can make a run in the Big Dance, specifically, to the Final Four.

Seven ACC teams have made the Final Four in the past eight tournaments.

Some higher-seeded national title contenders are part of that list, but some longer-shot ACC squads have made Cinderella runs, such as No. 5 Miami last year and 10th-seeded Syracuse in 2016. 

ACC teams play well in The Dance, and I think Clemson can, too. 

The Tigers have bounced back following a midseason slump, winning seven of their past nine games, including one over North Carolina in Chapel Hill. 

When looking for potential long-shot wagers, I like to target high-variance squads.

A team with a wide range of outcomes gives us a better chance of cashing an unlikely outcome. 

Clemson qualifies as a high-variance team because of its inside-out offense and compact defense. 

In the post, the Tigers play through stud center PJ Hall, who drags defenses toward the interior, opening up perimeter jumpers.

The Tigers take 24 3-pointers per game and make nine (36 percent), with Joe Girard (43 percent) leading the way. 

Conversely, the Tigers allow plenty of jumpers, ranking 283rd nationally in 3-point rate allowed.

So Clemson games turn into shootouts, and the high-variance nature of those games means anything can happen.

If the Tigers get hot from beyond the arc and their opponents get cold, they could shoot their way to four straight wins.

They did that during a five-game streak in late November, shooting 43 percent from 3 and holding opponents to 32 percent in wins over Boise State, Alcorn State, Alabama, Pitt and South Carolina. 

Clemson games are high-variance, but I feel good about the Tigers’ ability to skew variance.

The Tigers rank top-80 nationally in Open 3 Rate and top-50 in Open 3 Rate allowed, so they take better 3s than they allow. 

The metrics don’t love the Gamecocks — they rank 44th nationally in KenPom’s ratings — and that’s understandable.

They’re not a dominant team, and they don’t have a stellar strength of schedule. 

That said, South Carolina is 24-5 (12-4 ACC) for a reason. 

The Gamecocks play at a snail’s pace, ranking 354th nationally in tempo and forcing opponents into the last four seconds of the shot clock on 10 percent of possessions. 

Their methodical five-out swing motion offense works the ball slowly inside-out, specifically from center B.J. Mack to point guard Meechie Johnson to wing shooter Ta’Lon Cooper.

And their midrange funneling drop, transition-denial defense and rock-solid defensive rebounding make them hard to beat with quick-strike offense. 

Slower-paced, lower-scoring affairs inject a higher level of variance.

Limited possessions mean there are only so many chances to overcome mistakes or bad possessions, and South Carolina is a relatively mistake-free team that’s maddening to play against. 

SEC teams haven’t been able to adjust, as no South Carolina conference game has exceeded 66 possessions. 

The Gamecocks have dominated late-game, crunch-time situations by winning their low-possession, high-variance games on the margins, boasting 10 wins by six or fewer points. 

The Gamecocks could generate four tight tournament games if they force opponents to play at their pace and style, and there’s a good chance luck and variance swing their way.