Spencer Steer, Michael Massey and more hitter targets outside the ADP Top 300
Think of this list as your deep-league escape hatch… (All ADP data per NFBC since 2/14/23)
Catcher: Christian Bethancourt, TB, ADP 315
Most people would probably feel lucky at this point in drafts just rostering a catcher who doesn’t actively hurt their team, but we’re going to do much better than that. First and foremost, as always we’re targeting opportunities. After being traded from Oakland to Tampa at the All-Star break, Christian Bethancourt got worked in slowly through August — taking over a MLB staff mid-season is no small feat. He split TB’s games played right down the middle with incumbent Francisco Mejía until September, when he eventually commanded a 60/40 share down the stretch. I believe, at the very least, this is the playing time split we’ll see going forward. In the event I’m right, Bethancourt’s ~300 PA projections are way off and need to be properly adjusted. I’m guessing the market at large is struggling to properly spot him, as is almost always the case with players who have experience abroad.
Our argument’s simple enough. Bethancourt is a former top prospect who just put up a double-digit Barrel rate at the highest level, coming off a pretty darn impressive 600 PA pace in 2022 — .252/70/61/20/9. He’s seeing the majority of games behind the plate, but also gets time sparingly at first base. Also, don’t undersell the value of moving to a superior Rays team that just jettisoned their every-day first baseman, Ji-Man Choi.
First Baseman: Wilmer Flores, SF, ADP 348
My favorite +300 ADP first baseman represents a pretty good case study in market reactions to brand-name biases. If we strip the names from my beautifully formatted spreadsheets, what might we find? How about an every-day player with triple-position eligibility who hits in the top third of the lineup with a .264 BA/70/76/23/1 pace per 600 PA over his past 3172 plate appearances? Sounds like a pretty strong bet to profit at ADP. The player I’m referencing is Wilmer Flores, and I refuse to punish him for a career-low .229BA (.246BABIP) when his plate skills are still legitimately excellent (17.1%K:9.8%BB, 7.9%Swinging Strike, 30.7%O-Swing, 90.1%Zone-Contact, 26.1°sd[LA]).
While the 6.6% Barrel rate doesn’t necessarily pop off the page, his 48.6%Pull and 46.4%Fly-ball rates in combination led to 19 Home Runs and 13 Doubles on 110 Pulled Flyball/Line Drives (MLB’s 7th most). Flores has precisely the type of pull profile that provides a power floor even in a suppressed offensive environment (covered in our hitting primer here). His versatility, plus the Giants’ weak lineup, should provide ample plate appearances to produce for fantasy managers providing Flores is healthy.
Second Baseman: Michael Massey, KC, ADP 382
I never claim to be the world’s foremost expert on prospects, but I have found my own way to benefit from them greatly over the years… without dishing out the sticker price. For starters, I never trust rookies the first time around, especially when the tradeoff is a premium pick. The plan is simple. Let someone else pay the premium and deal with the inevitable disappointment. That leads to frustration and oftentimes a drop, where I’ll be waiting to buy low on talent — except this time it comes with some experience.
Enter my top +300ADP second baseman, Michael Massey. At only 24 years old, the once highly-touted Royals starting 2B has already been wholly discarded by the fantasy community. Granted his 194 PA sample in 2022 left a ton to be desired on the surface (.683OPS, 93wRC+), but I truly feel that perspective misses some of the forest for the trees. I understand what we saw in the disciplinary basket profile was extremely flawed (14.3% Swinging Strike, 38.9% Chase, 78.9% Zone-Contact). That said, I have to stress not only how small a 194 PA sample is, but that his 19.1% K-BB was significantly higher than any other point in his MiLB career, something we’ve seen come down already this spring.
Frankly, I’m obsessed with the rest of the profile at cost, especially from a second baseman. If you read my hitting primer last week then you know I’m hunting for pull power to provide my power base. Well, if pull power is indeed what gets you going, then Michael Massey’s peripherals are borderline erotic (52.3% Pull, 42.3% Fly Ball, 13.0% Barrel). In his small cup of coffee last season, Massey still managed to pull 32 Fly Ball/Line Drives for 4 home runs, 3 doubles, and a 1.469 OPS. He’s off to a hot start this spring (21 PA; .350 BA, 3 HR, 2 SB) and should play every day for the Royals. At this point in drafts, we’re looking to move the needle, and Massey’s career 600 PA MiLB pace (.294/97/111/25/17) is exactly the type of five-category profile with league-winning potential I like to bet on.
Shortstop: Oswald Peraza, NYY, ADP 300
Shortstop: Anthony Volpe, NYY, ADP 356
I originally typed out the very best argument I could for Reds MI Kevin Newman. You already know I can’t stop ranting about the hitting environment in Cincinnati, plus they paid him to play every day, leaving me to dream on a repeat of his 2019 performance. Then, I quickly realized that was a losing argument, so let’s try this again. I’ve liked Oswald Peraza for a while, as he came up through the Yankees system as a power/speed combo threat, with the potential to really impact your season as a five-category contributor — 600 PA MiLB pace since 2021: .280/85/69/24/45. So why even consider backing off the Peraza hype train you ask? Peter Gammons, of all people.
Interestingly enough, I mentioned my approach to rookies earlier in this piece, so you know where I stood on Anthony Volpe coming in. I thought, even though he was likely blocked to start the season, irrational exuberance would rear its head and I was getting the actual playing time from Peraza at a discounted ADP. I understand that none of this is decided yet, which is why I think, for the time being, you have to draft them both. At least one of Volpe or Peraza is set for a meteoric rise in price if it hasn’t already begun by the time you read this. Maybe the Yanks turn around and trade Peraza for pitching and you wind up with two amazing starters — you never know. Not to mention, if for some reason one gets sent down or injured, then you have an easy Week 0 drop plus the Yankees starting shortstop — a winning proposition after pick 300.
Third Baseman: Spencer Steer, CIN, ADP 393
Right off the bat, Steer checks a lot of boxes for consideration during the late stages of a fantasy draft. He’s currently set to play every day for the Red Legs, with half his games in an optimal hitting environment after being traded from Minnesota for Tyler Mahle. Steer also got a small taste of the bigs, which I love, even if it went terribly — 108 PA, .211 BA, .632 OPS, 74 wRC+. He poses the potential for a huge profit, which is what I’m looking for late rather than more vanilla options. FanGraphs has a 45/50 Game Power and 50/50 Raw Power grade for Steer, who has actually shown the propensity for contributions across the board in his past — career MiLB 600 PA pace of .268/95/82/24/8. The lesson here, even as a conservative manager, is to take your risks late in shallow FAAB leagues with higher relative rates of replacement. If he stinks, gets demoted, or both, you’re no worse for the wear. The other available low-ceiling options at ADP will still be there after you drop him from your team.
Outfielder: TJ Friedl, CIN, ADP 349
I know, I know, another Red… but hear me out. I really think, although the market’s obviously hip to the fact Cincy is a great place to hit, it’s still being wildly underappreciated. Great American Ball Park was responsible for the most home runs in MLB last year (217), plus the highest HR/FB% (20.2%), HR/Barrel (64.4%), and HR/Blast (80.4%). All this despite Cincy being 19th among all teams in homers, having only one hitter w/20HR and no one else above 15.
Enter TJ Friedl, the forgotten 27-year-old center fielder who has done nothing but produce whenever given the chance to play full-time. In over 2000 MiLB PA, he’s put up a respectable 600 PA pace of .275/90/62/12/6, that’s translated well at the MLB level so far in 294 PA (including some early season struggles). The beginning of last year was basically a disaster for Friedl, as he hit .200, while playing sparingly, without a home run and five steals in 29 games. Fast forward to August, when strong play earned Friedl another promotion from Triple-A Louisville and, frankly, I’m not sure most fantasy managers know how good he was down the stretch — 43 G, 158 PA; .267/20/18/8/2, .888 OPS, 139 wRC+. He did exactly what we want to see from our speculative picks, bringing excellent defense to the park every day, flashing some legitimately elite plate skills (13.9%K:9.5%BB, 26.9% Chase, 88.9% Zone-Contact), and adding two miles an hour to his max exit velocity (107.2 mph). Oh, and by early September, he was leading off every day. Especially in 5OF deeper leagues, Friedl is easily one of my favorite +300ADP outfielders.
Outfielder: Avisaíl Garcia, MIA, ADP 331
Garcia crushed fantasy drafters’ souls in 2022, putting up his worst full season (380 PA, .224/31/35/8/4) by a country mile. However, fantasy markets, much like trading markets, serve the purpose of a price-finding mechanism. This process happens over time quite dynamically, and usually there’s a point of overcorrection as the pendulum swings in search of equilibrium. That’s where I feel we are as a whole with Garcia. Even the most ardent spreadsheet sophist like myself knows that these are human beings and sometimes extenuating circumstances create throwaway seasons for players. Garcia finished as a Top 30 OF in 2021 and had at least a .262 batting average with 20 HR, 8 SB, and 133 R+RB in two of his past three full seasons. As bad as 2022 was for Garcia, he still managed well above average underlying power statistics (44.8% HardHit+95mph, 116.8 maxEV). He’s also been quoted in the Miami Herald this offseason about not being properly prepared for last season, and how being lackadaisical in his training regiment led to poor production and an eventual injury-shortened season. “It’s not the way you fail. It’s the way you get up, Garcia said. “I’ve just got to keep working. Keep trying to do your best every single day and learn from failure.”
Players are usually known to be more optimistic about their own future than I am, that much is true. However, Garcia made good on his word regarding preparation, showing up to camp down 15 pounds and looking svelte. (The best shape of his life anyone?) He’s cheap, hitting .313 this spring, and is projected to clean up for a Marlins team in desperate need of a legitimate power source. Giddy up, let’s go.
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