Sports Gambling News: December Is For College Bowl Dogs; CFP Odds; The Messi Effect And More

It’s that time of year. College bowl season is well underway, and we take a look back at some highlights of the sports gambling news world. This year’s college bowl schedule has been falling the way of the underdogs. Will that continue in the College Football Playoff, where it looks like the committee has at least one game wrong with the rankings?

Also, Deion Sanders gave bettors two of their three best paydays versus the sportsbook this year, and Messi’s effect on MLS went all the way to the ticket windows.

Sports Gambling News: December Is For College Bowl Dogs; CFP Odds; The Messi Effect And More

The college football bowl season is in full swing, and the underdogs are having their way. Through Tuesday’s games, dogs are 10-10 SU and 12-8 ATS. Through Christmas, underdogs were 10-7 SU and 12-5 ATS.

It’s unclear why the underdogs are fairing so well in bowl games. One theory is the transfer portal wreaking havoc on the rosters. The result is that coaches are forced to go deep down the roster for replacements.

Of the notable results, the biggest win by a dog was South Florida’s 45-0 thumping of Syracuse in the Roofclaim.com Boca Raton Bowl. The Bulls entered the game as 5.5-point dogs. Fresno State also went into the Isleta New Mexico Bowl as 2.5-point dogs to New Mexico State but won by 27 points, 37-10. The other underdog to win by 20 or more points was Ohio, which was getting 1.5 points but beat Georgia Southern, 41-21, in the Myrtle Beach Bowl to kick off the bowl season.

December has been kind to the underdogs in all of college sports. In addition to the bowl results, the underdogs are 272-247-5 ATS in college basketball through Christmas Day action. That’s a 52 percent hit rate.

The trend doesn’t translate to the professional ranks. Underdogs are 27-28-4 ATS in the NFL and 68-93-2 ATS in the NBA through Christmas Day action.

College Football Playoff Odds

The College Football Playoff is right around the corner, so let’s take a quick look at the odds.

The first game on New Year’s Day will pit No. 1 Michigan against No. 4 Alabama at the Rose Bowl. The Wolverines are 1.5-point favorites and -128 to win straight up, while the Crimson Tide are at +106 to win.

In the history of the College Football Playoff, the top seed failed to advance to the championship game only twice. The last time it happened was in 2018 when No. 4 Alabama beat then top seed Clemson, 24-6. Will Michigan, which has never advanced to the championship game in two other tries, be able to avoid the upset?

On the other side of the ball, the two times a 4 seed advanced to the championship game, it won the title. The inaugural season in 2015 when Ohio State beat Alabama and then Oregon. Then in 2018 when the Crimson Tide went on to beat Georgia, 26-23, in overtime.
Regardless of who wins this first semifinal game, Vegas likes the winner to capture the trophy. According to Caesars, Michigan is the favorite to win it all at +190, followed by Alabama at +195.

In the second semifinal game, third-seeded Texas is a -4.5-point favorite over the two-seed Washington Huskies. Washington is +152 to win the game outright, while the Longhorns are -184. Caesars has Texas listed at +270 to win the championship and Washington at the longest odds at +700.

The 2 seed hasn’t advanced to the championship game in four straight years, and the last No. 2 to win the title was Clemson in 2019. The last, and only, three sed to win a title was Georgia in 2022 when the Bulldogs trounced top seed Alabama, 33-18.

Not sure any of this means anything other than Vegas is expecting close games this year.

Sports Betting Insights From 2023

BetMGM recently produced some insights from 2023, and the sportsbook called the year record-setting.

“BetMGM experienced a record 2023, and we expect to continue that momentum into 2024,” said Matt Cosgriff, Director of Retail Trading at BetMGM.

According to the sportsbook, the most bet event by ticket was no surprise, with the Chiefs’ win over the Eagles in the Super Bowl tops. The AFC and NFC championship games were the next two top bet games by tickets.

Two of the three games that resulted in the biggest loss for the sportsbook involved Dieon Sanders’ Colorado Buffalos. Customers won the most money on the Seahawks/Dallas game on November 30th, followed by the Nebraska/Colorado contest on September 9th, and the Colorado/TCU game on September 2nd.

Meanwhile, the top bet players by tickets were Shohei Ohtani, Nikola Jokic, and LeBron James. Jokic also won the most money for the bettors, followed by Kenneth Gainwell and Derrick Henry.

Looking ahead, Cosgroff expects live in-game betting and player props to take off next year.

“2024 will show the evolution of traditional and modern sports betting,” said Cosgriff. “The trading team expects in-play wagering and player-prop betting to grow. Live betting continues to increase in the overall percentage of handle as more people enjoy ‘trading the games’ than just a pre-game wager.”

The Messi Effect

Soccer legend Lionel Messi’s move to Inter Miami of Major League Soccer generated a great deal of interest over the final part of the season. Messi joined Miami on July 15 and immediately played a part in on-field success. Miami became a major draw with the Argentine star on the pitch and won the League Cup.

The Messi effect went deeper than just on-field success for Miami. According to bet365, action on Inter Miami games increased by a “thousandfold” after the signing. Bets on Messi’s performance also often outperformed bets on full-time results and other match markets.

“I have been in this business over 21 years, and I haven’t seen another example of a player going to a newer league that isn’t considered amongst the top leagues in the world have such a seismic impact on the betting action, if not the league itself,” said bet365 Trading Leader Aron Wattleworth.

The most popular bets on Messi were anytime goal scorer, to score 2 or more goals, and shots on target.

“There aren’t enough hyperbolic metrics to measure his massive impact on the betting action,” added Wattleworth.

Messi’s signing also has helped the club sign another star this past week, Uruguay’s Luis Suarez.

Right now, Miami is the 2024 favorite, with the MLS Cup in 2024 at +250.