Spurs vs. Hawks Predictions, Picks, Odds
The Spurs are yet to resolve the many problems that derailed their season. They’re 26th in rebound rate, 26th in three-point percentage allowed and 27th in percentage made, and 28th in net rating.
There’s very little in the way of structure to the Spurs’ offense. Gregg Popovich said earlier this year that he wasn’t even giving Wemby many plays so much as sitting by and watching what he liked to do to build for the long term.
Regardless of the justification, the lack of cohesion created a real dichotomy in San Antonio. The team leads the league in assist percentage but also frequently makes the wrong reads, whether that be shooting or passing at the wrong time or swinging the ball in the wrong direction.
All that said, the Spurs showed improvement over the past couple of weeks. They’re only 3-7 but are up to 17th in net rating with the third-lowest turnover percentage over their last 10 games.
A major factor in the team’s renaissance is the outstanding play of Wembanayama. The young Frenchman averaged 23.4 points, 8.9 rebounds, 3.6 assists, and 3.4 blocks over his last seven outings, including a 26-point, 11-rebound night against the Charlotte Hornets his last time out.
Wemby’s minutes have been frustratingly low, including a season-worst 23.6 per night in January. Despite that, he’s still having a huge impact on the game and is a +54 over his last three outings.
On the other side, the Hawks are entering crisis mode. They can be buyers or sellers at the deadline—seemingly the latter, as there are talks of Dejounte Murray leaving town—but they can’t keep this core together and expect a sudden change in fortune.
Young (27.2 points, 10.9 assists) is playing at arguably the highest level of his career, not just on offense, but on defense as well (especially in the clutch). But even with his heroics, the team has just one win in its last five games and is a game out of the final play-in spot.
Atlanta’s offense has regressed as the season progressed. It’s down to eighth on off. rating for the year and 19th over the last 10 games, both of which are much worse than the team was used to at the start of the year.
Meanwhile, the defense has been consistently terrible (27th in def. rating for the year). They also don’t rebound very well, though they are much better with Jalen Johnson back in the lineup.
Whereas most teams get a boost when they play at home, the Hawks are 6-11 in their building and 9-12 on the road. They’re also 2-4 in their last six home games, though those wins were against the Oklahoma City Thunder and Philadelphia 76ers, two of the best teams in the league.
There don’t seem to be many immediate fixes available for this squad, Their defense hasn’t shown any promise all year, and the Murray trade rumors are picking up. It feels like a matter of team until there’s a new core in place and Atlanta can try to make a run back to the Eastern Conference Finals like it did a few years ago.
Spurs vs. Hawks Prediction and Betting Pick
The Hawks are a better team than the Spurs are, but we don’t know about their ability to cover this line. Young should be in for a nice game because of San Antonio’s defensive deficiencies on the perimeter, but we don’t know if their defense will hold against a team that recently found its offense.
The more minutes that Wembanayama can play, the better off the Spurs are. Popovich has remained committed to limiting his time on the court, but his recent impact showed that he can still change the direction of games.
We like the Spurs with the points here. This is the best they’ve looked all year, while the Hawks are in a rut and need a shake-up.
When: Monday, Jan. 15 @ 3:30 p.m. ET
Where: State Farm Arena, Atlanta, GA
TV: TNT
