Spurs vs Jazz Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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25 February 2024

Spurs vs Jazz Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

Victor Wembanyama and the Spurs have not gotten the results they want lately, but bettors have been happy with their run of covers. Our NBA betting picks expect that success to continue vs. the Jazz tonight, even if Wemby doesn't dominate the glass.

The San Antonio Spurs may ride into Sunday night’s game in Utah on a three-game losing streak, but they’ve been playing some better basketball over the last week or so and should be licking their lips here with the Utah Jazz struggling big-time over the course of the month.

Can the Spurs find a rare win, or will the Jazz get right in this one?

Let's get right into it with our in-depth preview of the NBA odds with free NBA picks for Spurs vs. Jazz on Sunday, February 25.

Spurs vs Jazz odds

Spurs vs Jazz predictions

Let’s start out here by laying out two teams in contrasting form. The Utah Jazz have not won or covered in their last five. The San Antonio Spurs, despite owning one win since January 27, have begun to turn things around with a 3-1 record against the spread over their last four.

In the month of February, the Spurs have pulled their defensive rating up to around the middle of the NBA, even though their offense continues to rate as one of the worst in basketball. They’ve also ranked 14th in rebounding rate despite sitting in the Bottom 5 over the course of the season.

San Antonio’s improvement on defense can be attributed to its performance on the arc, where it has allowed just 37.5% of opponents’ shots to fall in February according to Cleaning the Glass, 1.5 points better than its season-long mark and enough to put them 14th in the NBA.

This is going to be critical against a Jazz team that’s ranked fifth all year in 3-pointers shot per play, but one that’s somehow found a way to be even worse this month than their season-long mark, which is already in the Bottom 5 of the league. On top of that, the Spurs have been forcing more shots inside of the 3-point line.

With that, I think the Spurs are in a good spot here to keep their ATS run going. Utah has been a very difficult to beat at home, or even earn a cover against, but with the way this offense is running at the moment I think San Antonio should continue to look strong on defense.

My best bet: Spurs +7 (-112 at DraftKings)

Spurs vs Jazz same-game parlay

Spurs +7

Victor Wembanyama Under 10.5 rebounds

Collin Sexton 20+ points

I’m going to start here with shorting Victor Wembanyama, as I think the rebounding total on Wemby is a bit inflated. He managed just seven boards the last time these two teams met, and it makes sense considering the Jazz are the top-ranked team in rebounding rate this season.

Yes, the Spurs have been improving in that regard, but they’re still nowhere near the caliber of Utah on the glass. Wembanyama has gone under this number in four of his last six games and has only earned the Pver on this against two very poor teams on the boards.

Then, I’m going to look to back the trends of this Spurs defense and roll with a player who should be looked upon as the Jazz (hopefully) settle for mid-range jumpers and shots at the rim. That’s where Collin Sexton will come in handy, and it’s worth noting that he did go for 20 points the last time these two teams met.

If the Jazz continue to struggle from outside, I think Sexton — not Lauri Markkanen or Jordan Clarkson — will lead the charge offensively.

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Spurs vs Jazz spread and Over/Under analysis

The Spurs opened up as 6.5-point underdogs, and immediately the money came in on the Jazz with some big bettors possibly anticipating a get-right game for the home team. The line quickly fell back to 6.5 before fluctuating between 7 and 6.5 points.

That would seem to make sense considering while 40% of the bets placed on the spread over at DraftKings are on the Spurs, a favorable 78% of the cash is on the Jazz to cover the 7 points here.

In terms of the total, the movement hasn’t been quite as crazy as some you see in the NBA. The opening line was 241.5, and after some steady action towards the Over to push it to 242, we’re right back to where we started on Sunday afternoon at 241.5 at most books.

It’s worth noting that 27% of the bets and 32% of the handle at DraftKings is on the Over, indicating some slight sharp action.