St. John's vs. Providence prediction: College basketball odds, picks

St. John’s and Providence feel like the same team.

Both are 6-7 in Big East play, hovering toward the bottom of league standings.

Both are challenged offensively but solid defensively, with multiple ways to generate turnovers.

Both are good on the boards. 

The first meeting played out as such, with St. John’s eeking out a 75-73 home victory. 

I’m betting on the Friars get revenge behind the flipped home court. 

It’s always hard to play in Providence.

The Friars have a robust home-court advantage, which they’ve ridden to a 9-7 ATS mark in home games this year with a +15.3 Net Rating. 

They only have two true road wins this season (West Virginia, Villanova) and boast a -5.6 Net Rating away from New York City. 

St. John’s runs a guard-led ball-screen motion offense.

Daniss Jenkins and Jordan Dingle lead the charge as primary ball-handlers while everyone else cuts off ball. 

And if that doesn’t work, big man Joel Soriano crashes the offensive glass, leading a squad that ranks first nationally in second-chance points per game (17) and top five in offensive rebounds per game (15). 

But Providence’s switch-everything defensive coverage essentially neutralizes ball screeners and cutting actions, and the Friars rank fourth in the Big East in defensive rebounding rate during conference play. 

In the last matchup, the Johnnies couldn’t get much going from their perimeter actions and they only grabbed 10 offensive rebounds.

Luckily, they snuck out with a win because they shot 7-for-18 (39%) from 3. 

I don’t expect the Red Storm to generate much success from its half-court offensive sets or grab too many offensive rebounds, and I’m betting that their over-the-top shots don’t fall in a raucous environment. 

Meanwhile, Providence should be able to score in transition again, given the Friars put up 28 points on 20 transition possessions in the last matchup.

And they should be able to generate easy free-throw opportunities, as they rank first in the conference in free-throw rate while the Red Storm rank ninth in free-throw rate allowed. 

Altogether, the Johnnies managed to hold off Providence on their home court thanks to a good shooting night, but the Friars have enough schematic advantages to flip the script on their home court.