College Basketball Best Bets, Feb. 21: Florida vs Alabama, St. John's vs Georgetown

Vaughn Dalzell breaks down his best bets for Wednesday, including Alabama vs Florida and St. John’s at Georgetown.

St. John’s (-10) at Georgetown: O/U 149.0

This 2-8 stretch over the last 10 games for St. John’s is the worst 10-game stretch of Rick Pitino’s career dating back over 20 years.

The Red Storm have struggled from deep (29.1%, 335th), and the free-throw line (70.8%, 242nd) and own below averages in most defensive categories. Georgetown has lost 10 straight games with four games decided by single digits. The Hoyas have scored at least 70 points in five of those 10 games and 66 or more in seven.

Last season’s meetings were 75-73 and 79-70 and before that were 90-77 and 88-69, so there are always plenty of points. I think the Hoyas could win this game and should have their way offensively here and there versus the Red Storm.

After Pitino’s comments following the Seton Hall loss, there is no telling how St. John’s players respond, but we know Georgetown only has so many opportunities to win, and this is one of them.

I played Georgetown’s Team Total Over 69.5 at -115 odds and would go up to 70.5. I lean the Hoyas +10 and ML (+350).

Pick: Georgetown Team Total Over 69.5 (1u)

Florida at Alabama (-8.5): O/U 174.0

Alabama got out to a 52-23 lead last year versus Florida at halftime and both SEC teams play at similar offensive tempos, ranking top 40 in the country this year. However, Alabama’s defense is 280th overall in adjusted tempo and that is where I am going with this bet.

Florida shoots 43.4% from two in SEC road play (last) and Alabama holds its opponents to 48.4% from two in SEC home games (4th-best), along with the top three-point defense (26.8%).

Florida has scored 23 (A), 39 (H), 32 (A), 32 (H), and 35 (A) points in the first half against Alabama over the last five meetings (since 2019). The Gators have stayed Under 39.5 first-half points in all five games and scored 35, 32, and 23 points in the past three road games at Bama.

All we need is one or two scoring droughts of a few minutes from the field in the first 20 minutes and this could be sweat-free. 40 Points is a lot for a road team to score in the first half of conference play.

Give me Florida 1H Team Total Under 39.5 at -125 odds on DraftKings and go down to 38.5 for 1 unit.

Pick: Florida 1H Team Total Under 39.5 (1u)

Nebraska (PK) at Indiana (PK): O/U 150.0

Nebraska hasn’t won at Indiana since 2019 and has struggled on the road with a 1-7 road record this season. Indiana is 11-4 at home this season but lost three of the past four at home, so both teams need this game.

In those eight road games for Nebraska, the Cornhuskers own bottom 50 rebounding ranks, the 265th-ranked offensive turnover percentage (19.2%), and an offensive and defensive efficiency outside the top 100.

The Hoosiers have elite defensive numbers in conference play at home, ranking top three in defensive field goal percentage (45.7%), two-point (45.9%) and three-point percentage (30.3%).

These are two of the slowest defensive tempo teams in the Big Ten. The Cornhuskers rank 354th-quickest (slowest in Big Ten) or bottom 15 slowest teams in defensive tempo, while Indiana is 289th and 11th-quickest or fourth-slowest in the conference.

I expect a grind and defense to be the focus early for Indiana. It is a hostile crowd in Indiana and they will feed off that. Give me Nebraska 1H Team Total Under 35.5 at -125 odds on DraftKings down to 34.5.

Pick: Nebraska 1H Team Total Under 35.5 (Risk 1.5u)

Providence at Xavier (-5): O/U 149.5

Providence and Xavier meet for two teams attempting to build their resumes, but trending in different directions. Xavier has lost two straight, while Providence has won the past two.

Providence has the third-worst-rated offense in Big East play as they are very dependent on Devin Carter and Josh Oduro. The Friars knock down 67.4% of free throws in road play, offensive rebound at the 294th-ranked rate, and shoot the triple at 30.6% (261st).

Xavier is a very good offensive rebounding team (2nd in Big East) and ranks top four in defensive field goal percentage (46.5%), plus two (46.1%) and three-point (31.5%) defensive percentages.

Providence has gone 2-6 on the road and scored 25, 16, and 28 points in the last three first halves on the road -- all losses. The Friars lost 85-65 at home to Xavier earlier in the season and trailed 41-40 at the half before getting blown out in the second half.

Xavier figured out what works versus Providence and now can come out strong on their home floor after a road loss at Seton Hall seven days ago.

With the rest in Xavier’s favor, expect a slower-paced game, so go Under 34.5 on Providence’s 1H Team Total at -118 odds on FanDuel. Good to 33.5.

Pick: Providence 1H Team Total Under 34.5 (Risk 1.5u)

Season Record: 37-29 (56%) +3.98 units

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