St Leger Betting Tips, Predictions and Best Bet
The final Classic of the flat season is upon us and the 2023 St Leger promises to be a fascinating contest. John and Thady Gosden fire two bullets at the race and the story all week has revolved around which stayer Frankie will choose to ride. Now he has made his decision the odds have shifted, but Billy Grimshaw is swerving the pair and is keen on another from a massive operation to claim this valuable and historic prize...
Quite the ding dong battle has been going on in the lead up to this year's St Leger for favouritism, with Gregory and Arrest switching places in the market once it was known Frankie was going to desert the first named and get in the plate aboard the latter. I am of the opinion that neither of the Gosden duo will win this Classic, but do think Dettori has chosen wrong. Gregory to me just looks a more talented animal and it seems Dettori has put too much stock in the fear that the ground will be so soft it brings his Juddmonte colt to the fore. Looking at the forecast (it is Friday morning as I pen this preview for context) it looks as though the Doncaster racegoers on Day 2 and 3 should be spared any soakings and the ground should dry up from soft to good to soft in my opinion.
After flopping in both the Derby when well fancied and the King Edward VII at Royal Ascot, Arrest bounced back to his best in fine style last time out on good to soft at Newbury in a Group 3. Perhaps this indicates he just needs a bit of cut in the ground and not a total bog, but to my eye Gregory's win in the Queen's Vase at Royal Ascot represents better form than anything Arrest has done. Perhaps he is far more ground dependent than he looks to be and will spin on soft but in a match bet, I'd side with him.
Thankfully this preview is not simply a match bet preview for this iconic Classic and the reason I am so keen to dismiss the big two from the Gosdens is the impression the second favourite CONTINUOUS made last time out at York in the Great Voltigeur. I am a big fan of Castle Way. indeed I had backed him antepost for this race, and was sweet on him to take that race from the front at York. On the Knavesmire front runners often have a decent time of things but the style in which Continuous travelled under Ryan Moore and the way in which he built into the race before passing the long time leader was a performance of a very high standard.
Earlier in the season he was outpaced in the Dante but still ran on well for third, before finishing second in the aforementioned King Edward, won by King Of Steel. He was running well without winning but to all who have the faintest idea about racing, it was clear to see he was itching to step up in trip. His York win showed he is a bona-fide stayer and I think he should be clear favourite here. I sound like a broken record here in praising Ryan Moore once again but he really is the best around these days so his presence on Continuous's back is a positive, as is Aidan O'Brien's fine record in this race.
Desert Hero would be the undoubted story of the race if he is triumphant, running in the King's silks in the first season since his coronation. William Haggas's charge has won his last two races by the smallest of margins (a neck in both) and although he is clearly classy, 5/1 looks too short to my eye. I'd be sweeter on the horse he narrowly defeated last time out at twice the price in Chesspiece, but neither really excited me. Aidan O'Brien is responsible for four of the nine, with Tower Of London, Alexandroupolis and Denmark joining our pick. Of this trio it is Alexandroupolis that appeals most, providing he is not on pace-making duties, and I will stick him in behind Continuous in a forecast bet. The main play however is simply a confident punt on Continuous to win the 2023 St Leger.
