Stars vs Panthers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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06 December 2023

Stars vs Panthers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

In a hockey equivalent of the Spider-Man pointing meme, the Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers are very similar teams who both have playoff aspirations despite some recent stumbles. See what angle Neil Parker likes best in tonight's betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

The Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers both reached their respective Conference Finals last spring, and the pair of juggernauts are back on the fast track to have a say in this year’s playoffs. It’s just that they’re both entering this tape-measuring matchup in run-of-the-mill fashion.

Dallas is coming off a 4-0 road loss to the Tampa Bay Lightning on Monday, and the hiccup has the Stars mired in a ho-hum 3-3-2 stretch. Similarly, Florida has been sitting on its 4-3 home loss to the New York Islanders since Saturday night, and the Panthers are also middling along a 4-4-1 run.

So, for a pair of teams with Stanley Cup odds aspirations, something has to give. And, their current so-so form is just scratching the surface of how similar the Stars and Panthers are. The NHL odds for Wednesday’s game further reinforce it with Florida just a short home favorite.

Here’s my free NHL picks for the Stars vs. Panthers on Wednesday, December 6.

Stars vs Panthers odds

Stars vs Panthers predictions

The Dallas Stars and Florida Panthers both drive possession and limit opponents at 5-on-5. Dallas ranks seventh in Corsi For percentage (53.5) while allowing the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.34). Similarly, Florida has caved opponents in with a fourth-ranked 57.1 CF% while allowing the third-fewest 5-on-5 goals per 60 (1.75).

I also value that neither team is facing stark statistical correction moving forward. The Stars sport a .999 PDO while the Panthers match them with a nearly identical 1.000 mark.

Add both teams sending an established goalie to the blue paint, and these two are exactly who we think they are going into this tape-measuring matchup.

Dallas and Florida are both healthy, well-rounded, and loaded with proven veterans and emerging scorers up and down their lineups. They’re well-coached and defend well. I expect goals to be at a premium.

One of the only statistical gaps I value between the teams is the Panthers aren’t as disciplined. Florida has taken the sixth-most minor penalties at 5-on-5, while Dallas has taken the eighth fewest. Additionally, the Stars rank second in penalty-kill percentage (88.8%), while the Panthers’ 81.7% mark is 12th.

Dallas also boasts a better power-play percentage (22.1%) compared to Florida’s 17.5% mark.

My best bet: Under 6.0 goals (-105 at SIA)

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Stars vs Panthers same-game parlay

Under 6.5 goals

Stars moneyline

Panthers +1.5

I anticipate a close, low-scoring game, and I give Dallas a slight edge in special teams. We’re landing the long odds because the Panthers puck line doesn’t correlate with the Stars moneyline.

All said, Dallas will need to hold Florida to two goals or fewer and win by 1.

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Stars vs Panthers moneyline and Over/Under analysis

There’s been minor movement to the moneyline since Tuesday afternoon. A splash of Florida action has been followed by buyback on Dallas. Still, considering the similarities and strengths of both the Stars and Panthers, I’m not anticipating either side to stray too far from even money.

This is an interesting total because a few sportsbooks opened it at 6.5, and it is all the way down to 5.5 at others. As a result, I consider the 6.0 line fair and likely to last leading into puck drop tonight.