Panthers vs Stars Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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12 March 2024

Panthers vs Stars Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Panthers and Stars have arguably the two deepest rosters in the NHL and will put on a show for the fans. With Florida's underlying metrics unsustainable, our NHL picks are riding with the home side tonight.

The Florida Panthers are the betting favorite to win the East but they’ll have their hands full tonight on the road when they take on the Dallas Stars.

With both teams a combined 14-5-1 to the Under over their last 10 games and a meeting between two Stanley Cup odds favorites, should bettors continue to pound Florida Unders, or is riding Dallas and its four-game winning streak at -110 the best option in Texas tonight?

I break down the NHL odds and offer my free NHL picks for the Panthers vs. Stars on March 12.

Panthers vs Stars odds

Panthers vs Stars predictions

The Florida Panthers are an elite team but their 95.37% save percentage at 5-on-5 over the last 10 games is a tough rate to maintain. This could be the high point for them in pricing.

The Dallas Stars on the other hand rank 25th in PDO over the last 10 games and are underperforming at 5-on-5 compared to their metrics. They are 6-3-1 in their last 10, just got back from sweeping the California road trip, and will take their new squad home for the first time in what will be a great crowd at American Airlines Center.

Dallas is a pick ‘em on home ice and it’s tough to pass up this new roster — even vs. the Panthers. Dallas improved its blue line with the addition of Chris Tanev, Miro Heiskanen is an elite offensive blueliner, and it can match up with Florida's depth thanks to the emergence of the third line.

Add in Jake Oettinger and I see these two teams as pretty much coinflips on neutral ice. Now with Dallas coming home to some loud support, I'm riding the Stars on the moneyline.

Florida is used to dominating the possession game, but Dallas can change that tonight. The Stars are just as good, if not better of late, in terms of not allowing scoring chances as they rank second in expected goals against/60 at 5-on-5 over their last 10 games. Florida ranks 15th and has been bailed out by an unsustainable save percentage at even strength.

The Panthers are without Aaron Ekblad which is a big loss and now the scoring threat on the third line — Evan Rodrigues — is questionable. This is going to be a tight game but home ice is worth a lot here, especially between two deep rosters and only the Stars getting the last change.

I like the Under 6.0 at even money, but with Florida’s luck and Dallas’ lack of it over the last 10 games, I like the Stars ML a little more.

My best bet: Stars moneyline (-110 at BetMGM)

Panthers vs Stars same-game parlay

Stars moneyline

Under 6.5

Heiskanen Over 0.5 assists

The Stars are riding a four-game winning streak and will return home for the first time since the trade deadline. This Dallas team is loaded up and down the roster and, in my opinion, is the only other team in hockey as deep as the Panthers. This is not an easy matchup for Florida who has been getting by on a league-best save percentage that is tough to maintain.

The combo of the assist and Under is boosting these odds slightly. I love this Under 6.0 at +100. Heiskanen is arguably a Top-5 offensive D-man and is becoming one of the best in all of hockey. I also love targeting defensemen in tight games as getting the puck towards the net is more of game plan than vs. weak opponents.

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Panthers vs Stars moneyline and Over/Under analysis

Dallas has bounced around from a pick ‘em to -115, and I don’t see how it could get any longer than -110. The last time Florida was a dog was at Carolina in February where the Panthers closed at +105. With the new lineup of Dallas, it’s not outrageous to value the new roster as similar to the Hurricanes.

Dallas has posted an elite expected goals against/60 at even strength. Oettinger is riding a four-game winning streak and is 12-2-2 over his last 16 games. Even with the winning record, Oettinger’s numbers have been below average so this Dallas team can be even better if Oettinger hits another hot streak.

This will be the first game of a two-game trip for the Panthers that will move to Carolina on Thursday. Since the All-Star break, the Panthers are 14-3 SU with all three losses coming in one-goal games. Their last two-plus goal defeat came on January 19. They are one of the best teams in hockey, but even with all the wins, they rank just 11th in expected goal percentage.

Ultimately, this is a game between two teams who want to win it all and have the rosters to do so. Dallas wants to prove it can hang with the betting favorite for the Cup while the barn in Texas will be rocking with all the increased hype for a deep playoff run.

Give me the home side and the Under 6.0 at +100. Prop Overs will be tough to bet here as both teams dominate shooting differential which usually leads to fewer shots on net.

Panthers vs Stars betting trend to know

The Stars have hit the third-period moneyline in 52 of their last 101 games (+9.40 Units / 6% ROI). Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Stars.

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