State Your Case: Stars' comeback chances entering Game 3 of West Final
NHL.com writers debate outlook with Golden Knights leading series
The Vegas Golden Knights did what they were supposed to in the first two games of the Western Conference Final at home, winning each in overtime.
If history is a tell, they have a better than 90 percent chance to win the best-of-7 series against the Dallas Stars.
Vegas won 4-3 in Game 1 on Friday when forward Brett Howden scored at 1:35.
In Game 2 on Sunday, the Golden Knights tied it on a goal by forward Jonathan Marchessault with 2:22 left in the third period before forward Chandler Stephenson gave them a 3-2 win at 1:12 of overtime.
Game 3 is at Dallas on Tuesday (8 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, CBC, SN, TVAS).
Can the Stars find their way back to win the series and advance to the Stanley Cup Final for the second time in four seasons, or have the Golden Knights all but punched their ticket to the Cup Final for the second time since joining the NHL for the 2017-18 season?
That's the question before NHL.com writers Derek Van Diest and Shawn P. Roarke in this installment of State Your Case.
Van Diest: The Stars played two excellent road games and came away empty-handed. Even with the scene shifting to Dallas for Game 3 and 4, I don't believe they will be able to come back to win. The Golden Knights will be playing with house money heading into American Airlines Center for the next two games and will be looking for just one win for an opportunity to wrap up the series at home in Game 5. The Golden Knights have yet to play their best game of the series and are capable of dominating the way they did in Game 3 of the second round against the Edmonton Oilers, a 5-1 road win that was Vegas' most complete game. The Golden Knights still have at least one of those in them against the Stars, and if they are able to earn at least a split in the next two games they'll be looking good to get to another Cup Final. Experience will also be a factor for Vegas, having been in this situation before, playing in the third round for the fourth time in six seasons.
Roarke: Great points, Derek. Things do look bleak from the Stars' point of view. I know only eight of 86 teams (9.3 percent) have come back from being 0-2 down to win a best-of-7 series in the round preceding the Cup Final. Those are not the odds you want when pushing all-in, to use the Vegas analogy here, but I will take them. Mainly because it is not much of a debate if I agree with you, but also because I believe it. I am going to stick with the age-old adage that you are not in trouble in a series until you lose a home game. The Stars haven't done that. They have lost two games on the road, leading in each. They came back in Game 1 to force overtime. They are right in this series and the margins have been razor thin. There is no reason to believe Dallas will not be on the right side of the margins in its raucous home barn. Look, if the Stars lose a game at home, particularly Game 3, I will sing a different tune. But if they hold serve like the Golden Knights did in the first two games, they essentially send it back to Sin City as a best-of-3. And then, as they say, it is anybody's hockey game, my friend.
Van Diest: You're right, Shawn. A team is never in trouble until it loses a game at home, but I just think Vegas has too much momentum heading to Dallas and will be tough to hold off, even at a rowdy American Airlines Center. The Golden Knights have won four consecutive playoff games and five of their past six. Their strength is their defensive play, and even though Stars forward Jason Robertson seems to have regained his scoring touch, the Golden Knights will find a way to shut him down. They did a masterful job on Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl, who had six goals in the first two games in the previous series but then did not score in the final four. Vegas, meanwhile, is a team that scores by committee: Through 13 playoff games, it has six players with at least 10 points, and forward Mark Stone has developed a knack for scoring big goals in key situations. He has 15 points (six goals, nine assists) in the playoffs and should be garnering mention as a candidate for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP. All the pressure will be on the Stars, and Game 3 is essentially must-win for them.
Roarke: Well, Derek, you made a great argument in your inaugural State Your Case appearance. And we agree on one thing: Being down 3-0 in this series will be a bridge too far. Other than that, Dallas should have hope because it can still win this series. They have too much talent to throw in the towel. Three wins is nothing for them. Remember how they dominated the Seattle Kraken, another score-by-committee team, in a 2-1 win in Game 7 of the last round? They have the best player at each of the three positions. Jason Robertson is an elite scorer at forward, nobody in this series can hold a candle to Miro Heiskanen on defense, and there is little question that Jake Oettinger has the better pedigree in goal. But forget the facts and let us consider emotion for a minute. The Stars are going to rally around their veteran talisman Joe Pavelski, a forward who has played 1,250 regular-season games without lifting the Cup. The rest of the Stars want to give 'Pavs' that chance. They will not go gentle into this good night, my friend, even if you are ready to bury them.
