Suns vs. Warriors prop bets Feb. 10: Bet on Kevin Durant torching his former team
The Phoenix Suns and Golden State Warriors meet in a star-studded showdown.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Durant won two championships with the Warriors and he hasn't lost his scoring touch since those days. I'm expecting KD to torch his former team and am also fading Andrew Wiggins' point total.
NBA oddsas of 2:49 p.m. on 02/10/2024.
Suns vs. Warriors prop bets
Best Bet: Durant over 25.5 points (-124)
This is a disrespectful line.
Durant is averaging 28.4 points per game — the fifth most in the NBA — and has cleared this total in 33 of 45 games this season (73.3%). That hit rate blows by the 56.3% implied probability assigned to this prop.
KD has gone over this mark in four of his past five games and scored 30-plus points in three of those contests. He's shooting a clinical 60.2% from the field in that span.
And it's not like the Warriors are a good defensive team.
Golden State is 20th in defensive rating and allows the ninth-most points per game to opposing power forwards, per Fantasy Pros. The team is awful at defending the mid-range and ranks last in opponent field goal percentage in that area of the court (47.6%), according to Cleaning the Glass.
Durant takes 57% of his shots from the mid-range which ranks in the 98th percentile of all NBA players.
This is a perfect matchup for one of the generation's best scorers. I expect him to blow by this total and am also interested in backing Durant to score 30-plus points at +175.
Key stat: Durant is averaging 29.0 PPG in his last five games.
Quick pick
Wiggins under 10.5 points (+100): It's a little surprising Wiggins is still on the Warriors. The Canadian is in the midst of his worst statistical season and was the subject of many trade rumours leading up to the deadline.
He's averaging just 12.4 PPG this season which is more than 10 points off his career high. It's also a 4.7-point dip from his 17.1 mark last season.
Phoenix allows the fewest points per game to opposing small forwards and I'm not expecting Wiggins to have a standout performance in a tough matchup.
He fell under this mark in both games against the Suns this year, scoring a total of 13 points in those contests.
