Supercomputer makes concerning Manchester United prediction for 2023/2024 Premier League season

Supercomputer predictions for the 2023/2024 season are tipping Manchester United to miss out on a place in the Premier League top-four - despite another encouraging summer transfer window for Erik ten Hag and his recruitment team.

In his first campaign at the helm, Ten Hag guided United to both domestic showpieces - winning the Carabao Cup - as well as finishing third in the Premier League standings. With that came a return to the Champions League.

Following that success, key figures behind the scenes have snapped-up Andre Onana, Mason Mount and Denmark striker Rasmus Hojlund to improve the squad. However, according to BetVictor findings, that will not be enough for United to underline and continue their undoubted progress under Ten Hag.

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That's also despite United being fourth favourites for the title, as per current odds from the bookmakers.

According to BetVictor calculations, United will finish in sixth position in the table on 64 points. Manchester City are backed to win their fourth straight Premier League title - on 85 points - with Arsenal (76 points), Newcastle United (75 points) and Liverpool (69 points) making up the top-four.

Brighton, who defied the odds last season, are fancied to pip United into fifth spot on 67 points. According to the same data, Tottenham (8th) and Chelsea (10th) will once again struggle this term.

Following up that concerning prediction, BetVictor only give United a 0.7 per cent chance of winning the title this season, while Ten Hag and his players are 3.3 per cent shots to finish as runners-up. A significant factor in the squad being so unfancied is their low expected goals (xG) findings from the 2022/2023 campaign.

United fell short by a staggering -11.7 in that bracket last season. Their overall goal tally (58) was the lowest for any side finishing in the top-four over the last decade.

How does the Supercomputer work?

The supercomputer adopts the Monte Carlo method. At its heart is a Python-based match simulator that uses two Poisson distributions - one for the home team and one for the away team - to anticipate the number of goals each team could score in any given match.

A Poisson distribution is a mathematical concept that predicts the probability of a given number of events (in this situation goals) happening in a fixed interval of time. Beyond that, the supercomputer uses the match simulator to predict the outcomes of a full season's fixtures. The simulation is then run 10,000 times in order to discover average standings and probabilities.