Tage Thompson Is the Real Deal

twsn.net

06 October 2023

The city of Buffalo has missed the playoffs for 12 straight seasons since their last appearance in 2012. Under the direction of GM Kevyn Adams, the Sabres, over the past couple of years, have become the model franchise when it comes to drafting, developing, and constructing a team of the future. The Sabres have finally started to come around as a young rebuilding team just on the cusp of finally breaking into their playoff-contending form. With so many young star talents like Rasmus Dahlin, Owen Power, Dylan Cozens, and Devon Levi, the Sabres could finally end their prolonged drought.

But they have a secret, not-so-secret weapon up their sleeve. Tage Thompson exploded onto the scene for the Buffalo Sabres last year, becoming one of the biggest storylines in the NHL. Thompson was selected 26th overall by the St. Louis Blues in the 2016 NHL Entry Draft. The Sabres received Thompson in the trade that sent Ryan O’Reilly to St. Louis in 2018. Tage had a weird trajectory for the NHL, as his development was always questioned. Many scouts couldn’t deny that the signs were there. He had a knack for scoring, tight handles, and the NHL-ready size. But many were cautious about whether he could put it all together at the NHL level. Being a 6’6″ 220 lb lanky behemoth on ice can be one thing in the NHL. But to become a skilled, coordinated, and complete player at that size is something very few players in the NHL have ever done before.

Luckily for the Sabres and Tage Thompson, both took a chance on each other, and the rest (for now) is history. Although sending away Ryan O’Reilly stung at the time for the Sabres, getting a tempting prospect in Tage Thompson was a sneaky hit. They just didn’t fully realize what they were about to get. To get a project player who could eventually fill in the gap that O’Reilly left behind was huge for them at the time. The question moving forward was whether Thompson could be that guy for the Sabres. In a piece by Kris Baker on July 2nd, 2018, Tage Thompson delivered an insightful quote on his opportunity in Buffalo.

“It’s a great fit for me. It’s exactly what I’ve been looking for as far as an opportunity to go and play a lot and produce, and help the team win,” said Thompson. “The organization believes the same thing, so it’s nice to be on the same page.”

And believe they did.

Prior to the 2021-22 season, Tage Thompson had only scored 35 points in 145 games played over four seasons. He couldn’t put his size and frame to use on both sides of the ice. Points aren’t always necessarily important in the NHL, but impact matters. Over the years, between spending time in the minors and developing his game at the NHL level, Thompson transformed into a scoring machine who loves to shoot with an all-around great offensive impact.

Tage finally had his breakout year, scoring 38 goals and 68 points through 78 games. Being able to play alongside Jeff Skinner would prove to be the best thing to happen to him. Moving onto this season, Thompson continued the chemistry with Jeff Skinner and new linemate Alex Tuch. This trio became one the best offensive lines in hockey, dominating the competition night in and night out. Tage benefitted from this line, scoring 31 points with his linemates and combining for 43 goals and a 54 CF% as a line. With his development as a scorer and ability to play at a high level with his linemates, Thompson gunned for another explosive campaign. Tage became a highlight reel machine with a lethal shot, great hands, smooth puck control, and his ability to skate and move with the puck with his frame. Thompson buried 47 goals, 20 on the power play, and scored 94 points last season.

The past two seasons of growth and production for Tage Thompson have been undeniable. He has cemented himself into the Sabres’ Top 6 forward group and has earned a massive 7-year, 50 million dollar deal. Thompson has earned his money’s worth, but is he the big piece to move the Sabres forward?

We have seen many couple-season wonders come and go in the NHL. It’s not uncommon, especially for a unicorn player like Thompson. And as much as I initially didn’t want to believe that he can and will continue this production, the analytics are ready to defend his case.

He might be the real deal.

One of the big proponents of Thompson’s significant development as a scorer was his shooting adjustment. To be one of the league’s preeminent goal scorers, you must have a shooting percentage ranging from around 14-18%. For reference, every player this season who scored 40 or more goals had a shooting percentage above 11.5%, with an average of 15.8%. Luckily for Tage and his scoring renaissance the last two seasons, he has shot at 15% in both campaigns. More shots usually mean more goals. And for Tage Thompson, that has mostly been the formula. He obviously has the hands to perform crafty moves, but his high-volume shooting has transformed him into an elite goal-scorer. His elite shooting volume (ninth league-wide in shots per 60, between Jack Hughes and Jason Robertson) has allowed him to generate high-danger chances and put him in the upper echelon of goal-scoring talent in the NHL.

The one major criticism of Thompson is his defensive ability. Being in the 3rd Percentile of Even Strength Defense is a really rough position to be in. It’s a key facet of his game to work on as a player entering their prime at the age of 25 and playing Center. If he figures out how to use his skating and frame better on the defensive side of the ice, he can truly become a nightmare for his opponents. Undoubtedly, a player of his calibre can figure out how to become more effective defensively. But for now, Tage is truly one-dimensional in terms of his game solely focusing on offense.

Tage Thompson has truly become a special player. He’s a unicorn that has revolutionized the definition of a power forward. If you doubt that, just look at him. His plus-18 Offensive Rating ranks 13th in the league among forwards. And do I have to mention again that this dude is 6’6″ and putting up almost 50 goals? Insanity. His offensive evolution has made him one of the premier players to watch. And he has even more potential growth over the next couple of years on a young and fun Sabres squad looking to make waves again. At the NHL media tour in Vegas, Thompson said he’s “hungry” for 50 goals. Based on his offensive impacts and xGAR over the past couple of years have looked, he is poised to be able to take another crack at it next year.

I was one of the people who questioned if the Sabres were betting too much on one year’s worth of production from an unproven player. Thompson has damn near proved everyone wrong with his 47 goals and 47 assists despite playing through injury this season. Now I have to eat crow and stare at how stellar his contract can be. Is what we saw last year his ceiling, or does he have another gear? That’s what we’ll have to wait and see for, but just like his xGAR chart below, it’s only looking up for Tage Thompson.