Taking a Chance on a Potential Longshot to Win the Remsen Stakes
A remarkably competitive field has been entered for Saturday’s $250,000, Grade 2 Remsen Stakes at Aqueduct. The historic 1 1/8-mile contest for 2-year-olds is a Road to the Kentucky Derby presented by Woodford Reserve qualifier worth 10-5-3-2-1 points to the top five finishers, and that prize has proven sufficient to attract a promising field of 10 horses.
The Remsen can be a tricky race to handicap. A favorite hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since 2015, and that could be the case again in 2023, if only because a case of some sort can be made for any of the entrants to visit the winner’s circle.
A few contenders seem most likely to rise above the others in the betting. For example, there’s #3 Dornoch, a full-brother (same dam [mother], same sire [father]) to 2023 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve winner Mage. After finishing second in each of his first two starts, including the Sapling Stakes at Monmouth Park, Dornoch led all the way to win a 1 1/16-mile maiden special weight race at Keeneland by 6 1/2 lengths, earning strong speed figures of 90 (Beyer), 75 (Brisnet), and 101 (Equibase). This victory quite literally stamped Dornoch among the early favorites for the 2024 Kentucky Derby — he closed at odds of 19-1 in Kentucky Derby Future Wager Pool 2, the fourth-shortest price offered by any individual horse in the pool.
#8 Where’s Chrisappears to be another formidable contender. He’s run three times at Aqueduct, winning his debut dashing three-quarters of a mile before finishing third in the Futurity Stakes at the same distance in a race washed off the turf. But it appears running long is preferable for Where’s Chris; when he stretched out to one mile for the Nashua Stakes at Aqueduct on Nov. 5, he pressed the pace before taking over to beat Futurity winner Book’em Danno by three-quarters of a length, earning speed figures of 88 (Beyer), 90 (Brisnet), and 96 (Equibase). Where’s Chris finished fast in the Nashua, running his final quarter-mile in approximately :24.65, and this bodes well for his ability to stretch out to 1 1/8 miles in the Remsen.
#2 Domestic Productcan’t be counted out of the mix either, not after employing pace-tracking tactics to dominate a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight race at Aqueduct by 4 1/2 lengths. Nor can we overlook #5 Drum Roll Please, who stayed close to a hot pace in a one-mile maiden special weight race at Aqueduct before forging clear to win by two lengths for hot trainer Brad Cox. And underestimating #4 Moonlightcould be a mistake; he dominated a one-mile maiden special weight race at Aqueduct by nine lengths before finishing second in the Grade 3 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
Despite the quality credentials offered by the logical contenders for favoritism in the Remsen, we’re going to think outside the box and support #10 Private Desire, who figures to start as a longshot even though he’s conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher, a three-time winner of the Remsen.
Private Desire debuted alongside Dornoch July 29 in a maiden special weight sprint at Saratoga. While Dornoch finished second, Private Desire came home three-quarters of a length behind in fourth place. Subsequently, Private Desire tackled a similar contest at Aqueduct and led all the way through quick fractions to win by 1 1/4 lengths, earning strong speed figures of 94 (Beyer), 94 (Brisnet), and 99 (Equibase).
Private Desire started among the favorites when facing Where’s Chris in the Nashua, but failed to fire his best shot. Private Desire broke poorly in the Nashua and spotted the field several lengths, then raced greenly at the point where the backstretch chute connects to the main track and gave up even more ground.
By then, Private Desire didn’t have a realistic chance to win, especially considering how the Nashua featured strong closing fractions that made it difficult for late runners to gain ground. Despite all these challenges, Private Desire got back in touch with the field around the turn and passed one rival to finish fourth, beaten by 6 3/4 lengths by Where’s Chris.
If Private Desire breaks cleanly and races more professionally in the Remsen, who knows what might happen? We know from his maiden victory that Private Desire is fast enough to win a race like the Remsen, assuming he can carry his speed 1 1/8 miles. We won’t know for sure if Private Desire can handle the longer distance until he tries, but the fact he’s a son of Constitution is encouraging. Constitution won the Grade 1 Florida Derby and Grade 1 Donn Handicap racing 1 1/8 miles and is best known for siring Tiz the Law, winner of the 2020 Belmont Stakes (held at 1 1/8 miles due to COVID-19 race date changes) and the 1 1/4-mile Travers Stakes.
Since Private Desire is bound to offer enticing odds, we’ll keep our betting strategy simple. Bettors playing on a $10 budget can play Private Desire to win and call it a day, while bettors with more capital (say, $30) can add a trifecta using Private Desire on top.
Wagering Strategy on a $10 Budget
$10 to win on #10 Private Desire
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $10 to win on 10
Wagering Strategy on a $30 Budget
$10 to win on #10 Private Desire
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $10 to win on 10
$1 trifecta: 10 with 2,3,4,5,8 with 2,3,4,5,8 ($20)
What to say at the betting window: Aqueduct, Race 9, $1 trifecta 10 with 2,3,4,5,8 with 2,3,4,5,8
