Tampa Bay Rays vs Boston Red Sox Prediction 9-4-23 MLB Picks

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04 September 2023

The Boston Red Sox and the Tampa Bay Rays meet Monday in MLB action from Tropicana Field. The Red Sox are coming off a series versus the Royals over the weekend. Boston split the first two games in that set, then in the rubber match the Sox won by four. As for the Rays, they took on the Guardians in their last series. After losing the first two games in that set, in the finale Tampa Bay took a four-run win to stop the sweep. Check back all season long for free MLB picks at Sports Chat Place.

Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox took a rough 13-2 loss to the Royals in their Friday opener but were able to even things up with a 9-5 Saturday win. Boston’s Triston Casas had a homer, two RBI and two runs in that one. On Sunday the Sox posted three runs in the fourth inning on the way to a solid 7-3 victory. Adam Duvall and Masataka Yoshida (three RBI) each had a homer in the win.

In the starter role for the Monday game, Boston is sending out Brayan Bello. In his 23 starts this year Bello is 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA and 106 strikeouts over 131.0 innings. Bello is 3-2 with a 3.51 ERA over his last seven starts.

Boston Red Sox Team Facts

The Red Sox have lost each of their last 13 games at Tropicana Field.
The Red Sox have covered the run line in each of their last seven games as underdogs against AL East opponents.
The Red Sox have won the first inning in three of their last four games as road underdogs against American League opponents.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Red Sox's last five day games at Tropicana Field.
The Red Sox have led after 7 innings in four of their last six games as underdogs against AL East opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays

Over on the Tampa Bay side, they lost 3-2 to the Guardians on Friday and then took another close loss 7-6 in game two. Tampa Bay’s Christian Bethancourt posted a three-run homer in that one. On Sunday the Rays posted 13 hits in a 6-2 victory. Rene Pinto had a two-run homer and Brandon Lowe added three hits with a run in the win.

As starting pitcher for the Monday matchup, Tampa Bay will go with Aaron Civale. In 18 starts during 2023 Civale is 7-3 with a 2.64 ERA and 83 Ks in 102.1 frames. Civale is 2-1 with a 3.55 ERA in his last five starts.

Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

The Rays have won each of their last 13 home games against the Red Sox.
The favorites have covered the run line in each of the last seven games between the Red Sox and Rays.
The 'Inning 1 OVER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the last five day games between the Red Sox and Rays at Tropicana Field.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in three of their last four games as home favorites against American League opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 1st in the league for runs allowed this season (544).
The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 2nd in the league for steals this season (145).
The Boston Red Sox ranks 1st in the league for doubles this season (299).
The Boston Red Sox ranks 3rd in the league for hits this season (1245).

ANDREW’S FREE PICK

I’ll probably stay with the Rays here. We should have a pretty good matchup in this series regardless, though. Civale is 2-0 in his last trio of starts with just five earned runs in 16.0 total innings. As for Bello, he’s doing well these days also with a 2-1 record in his last three. Bello has four earned runs over his last 17.2 innings of work. On Sunday Tampa Bay got a solid bullpen effort collectively from five different pitchers. It was a nice bounce-back from giving up seven runs on Saturday. The Rays have scored 12 runs over the last two games and I like them to keep up the offensive rhythm.