Guardians vs Rays Prediction

pickdawgz.com

11 August 2023

The Cleveland Guardians will play the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 1 of their series on Friday night at Tropicana Field in St. Petersburg, Florida. Cleveland was able to save a series split in their last series, but they trail Minnesota by a few games in the AL Central. Tampa Bay is coming off of a really disappointing series loss and they continue to trail the Orioles in the AL East.

Guardians Preview

The Cleveland Guardians are 56-60 this season and they have lost seven of their last ten games. Cleveland is coming off of a series split with the Blue Jays, where they won two games and lost two games. The Guardians only scored six runs in the four games against Toronto and they are one of the lowest scoring teams in all of baseball. The Cleveland pitching staff has a 3.76 ERA, a 1.27 WHIP, and a .243 opponent batting average this year. The Guardians offense has scored 463 runs with a .248 batting average and a .311 on base percentage. Jose Ramirez is batting .283 with 18 home runs and 65 RBI’s for the Guardians. The projected starting pitcher for Cleveland is Xzavion Curry, who is 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA and a 1.16 WHIP over 64.0 innings pitched this season.

Rays Preview

The Tampa Bay Rays are 69-48 this season and they have lost three of their last five games. Tampa Bay is coming off of a series loss to the Cardinals, where they lost two out of three games at home. The Rays were just starting to get back on the right track, but losing two out of three games to one of the most disappointing teams in baseball is not a good sign. The Tampa Bay pitching staff has a 3.80 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and a .230 opponent batting average. The Rays offense has scored 603 runs with a .255 batting average and a .327 on base percentage this season. Randy Arozarena is batting .256 with 18 home runs and 66 RBI’s for the Rays. The projected starting pitcher for Tampa Bay is Aaron Civale, who is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and a 1.09 WHIP over 81.1 innings pitched this year.

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Tampa Bay Rays Team Facts

The Rays have won each of their last six games against AL Central opponents following a home loss.
The Rays have covered the run line in each of their last six games as favorites against AL Central opponents following a loss.
The Rays have led after 3 innings in each of their last three night games against the Guardians at Tropicana Field.
The Rays have trailed after 5 innings in four of their last five games as favorites.
The Rays have led after 7 innings in each of their last four night games at Tropicana Field against AL Central opponents.

Cleveland Guardians Team Facts

The Guardians have lost each of their last six road games against American League opponents that held a winning record.
The Guardians have failed to cover the run line in each of their last four games against the Rays at Tropicana Field following a win.
The Guardians have trailed after 7 innings in each of their last five Friday road games.
The 'Inning 1 UNDER 0.5 runs' market has hit in each of the Guardians' last four road games against American League opponents.

Tampa Bay Rays Player Prop Facts

Brandon Lowe has hit a home run in three of his last five home appearances against the Guardians.
Randy Arozarena has recorded at least one RBI in four of the Rays' last five night games against AL Central opponents that held a losing record.
Wander Franco has scored at least one run in each of the Rays' last four games.
Aaron Civale has recorded five or more strikeouts in eight of his last nine appearances with his team as a home favorite.
Josh Lowe has recorded at least one hit in each of his last seven appearances in night games against teams that held a losing record.
Josh Lowe has recorded two or more total bases in each of his last seven appearances in night games against AL Central teams that held a losing record.
Yandy Diaz ranks 5th amongst qualified players for Batting Average (.317) this season.

Cleveland Guardians Player Prop Facts

Jose Ramirez has hit a home run in three of his last 10 appearances against the Rays.
Andres Gimenez has recorded at least one RBI in three of the Guardians' last four road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Jose Ramirez has scored at least one run in four of the Guardians' last five road games against AL East opponents that held a winning record.
Ramon Laureano has recorded two or more total bases in three of his last four appearances at Tropicana Field.
Jose Ramirez has recorded at least one hit in each of the Guardians' last six road games against AL East opponents.

Matchup/League Facts

The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 2nd in the league for steals this season (123).
The Tampa Bay Rays ranks 2nd in the league for hits allowed this season (892).
The Cleveland Guardians ranks 29th in the league for RBI's this season (434).
The Cleveland Guardians ranks 2nd in the league for home runs allowed this season (117).

Pick

The Rays will look to bounce back in this game and they get to face one of the worst offenses in the MLB. Cleveland has pitched very well this season, but their offense has let them down in too many games. The Guardians are starting Xzavion Curry, who has allowed four earned runs over his last 10.2 innings pitched. The Rays are starting Aaron Civale, who has allowed three earned runs or fewer in five straight starts. Civale has been solid for most of the season and he has the benefit of going against this Cleveland lineup. Take the Rays -1.5 here.