TCU vs. Texas Tech odds, line, spread: 2023 college football picks, Week 10 predictions from proven model

The Texas Tech Red Raiders hope to return to their winning ways in their home stadium on Thursday when they host the TCU Horned Frogs in a crucial Big 12 battle. The Red Raiders (3-5, 2-3) have lost two straight and the Horned Frogs (4-4, 2-3) have dropped three of four. Both teams need a victory to help salvage their chances of a winning season and earning a bowl bid. Texas Tech is just 2-2 at home this season but went 6-1 at home last season. If the Red Raiders can take their final two games at Jones AT&T Stadium, they will have consecutive winning seasons at home for the first time in 10 years.

Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET. The Red Raiders are 3-point favorites and the over/under for total points scored is 59.5 in the latest TCU vs. Texas Tech odds from the SportsLine consensus. Before locking in any Texas Tech vs. TCU picks, be sure to check out the college football predictions and betting advice from SportsLine's proven computer model.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Since its inception, it has generated a stunning profit of well over $2,000 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on TCU vs. Texas Tech and just revealed its picks and predictions. You can visit SportsLine to see the model's CFB picks. Here are several college football odds and trends for Texas Tech vs. TCU:

• TCU vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -3
• TCU vs. Texas Tech over/under: 59.5
• TCU vs. Texas Tech money line: Texas Tech -153, TCU +129
• TCU: The Frogs are 1-2 against the spread in road conference games this season.
• TTU: The Red Raiders have gone over the posted total in four of their last five home games.
• TCU vs. Texas Tech picks: See picks at SportsLine
• TCU vs. Texas Tech live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Texas Tech can cover

The Red Raiders have been plagued by turnovers in their past two games. They have given it away eight times leading to 27 points combined for Kansas State and BYU after allowing just 17 points combined off turnovers in the previous six games. Six of those turnovers came on interceptions from third-string freshman quarterback Jake Strong, who showed some promise in his two starts but also appeared a bit rattled when asked to step in against upper-tier competition in his first two college starts.

Texas Tech should get an upgrade in both ball security and overall quarterback play because sophomore Behren Morton, who started the season as the No. 2 quarterback, is expected to return from injury Thursday and start under center. Morton has been solid so far this season, completing 57% of his passes for 696 yards with eight touchdowns against just two interceptions. Morton completed 19 of 26 passes for 180 yards and three touchdowns in Texas Tech's 39-14 win over Baylor. See which team to pick here.

Why TCU can cover

TCU coach Sonny Dykes told the media that a good portion of the emphasis during the bye week was spent on working on mental and physical toughness after Kansas State clearly presented an edge in those areas. He referenced the team he inherited in his first year at the helm, which memorably went through the regular season undefeated and ended up in the national title game against Georgia.

That historic team featured a wealth of talented, experienced players such as quarterback Max Duggan and receiver Quentin Johnston, who were among eight TCU players taken in the NFL draft. Although this year's club is vastly inexperienced by comparison, Sykes said he challenged this club to tap into the resilience and toughness that made last year's club so memorable. He said such traits are the goal for which the program should be defined.

The Horned Frogs have also had issues keeping their signal-callers healthy and will likely go with freshman backup Josh Hoover for the third time on Thursday. Incumbent starter Chandler Morris remains sidelined with a knee injury suffered in a 27-14 loss at Iowa State. Hoover has shown some promise in his two starts and Dykes recently told the media that the freshman has shown continued improvement in practice. Hoover threw for 439 yards and two touchdowns while completing 37 of 58 passes in a 44-11 rout of BYU in his first start. See which team to pick here.

How to make Texas Tech vs. TCU picks

SportsLine's model is leaning Over on the point total, projecting the teams to combine for 64 points. The model also says one side of the spread hits over 50% of the time. You can only see the model's pick at SportsLine.