Tennessee football predictions 2023: Our game-by-game picks are in
Predicting Tennessee football’s record went perfectly in coach Josh Heupel’s first season but fell short last season.
So consider Year 3 to be a tiebreaker for prognostications.
My pick of a 7-5 record in the 2021 regular season was right on the money. But the Vols’ went 10-2 in the 2022 regular season, exceeding my prediction of 8-4. They finished 11-2 after winning the Orange Bowl.
This season the Vols must replace SEC Offensive Player of the Year Hendon Hooker, Biletnikoff Award winner Jalin Hyatt, All-SEC pass rusher Byron Young and No. 10 NFL Draft pick Darnell Wright at offensive tackle.
But plenty of talent returns. So it’s reasonable to believe these Vols will finish somewhere in between the performances of Heupel’s first two seasons.
My pick is a 9-3 record. Here are the game-by-game predictions for UT’s 2023 season:
Sept. 2: vs. Virginia (at Nissan Stadium, Nashville)
Last season: Did not play. Virginia went 3-7.
The buzz: Expect a few hiccups as the revamped offensive line gains its footing. But quarterback Joe Milton will still spark a scoring surge in the friendly confines of Nissan Stadium.
The pick: UT wins 45-17.
Sept. 9: vs. Austin Peay
Last season: Did not play. Austin Peay went 7-4.
The buzz: The first priority will be working out the kinks in preparation of the following week’s trip to Florida. The second priority will be getting five-star freshman quarterback Nico Iamaleava plenty of playing time in the second half.
The pick: UT wins 52-10.
Sept. 16: At Florida
Last season: UT won 38-33. Florida went 6-7.
The buzz: Florida is rebuilding, but never underestimate the impact of The Swamp. This is the Vols’ best chance to win in Gainesville since its last victory there in 2003. And they’ll do it, barely.
The pick: UT wins 31-27.
Sept. 23: vs. UT-San Antonio
Last season: Did not play. UTSA went 11-3.
The buzz: UTSA may be ranked when this game arrives. Quarterback Frank Harris, a darkhorse Heisman Trophy candidate, won't be easy to stop. But the Vols are better equipped for shootouts.
The pick: UT wins 42-24.
Sept. 30: vs. South Carolina
Last season: South Carolina won 63-38. South Carolina went 8-5.
The buzz: South Carolina quarterback Spencer Rattler may have another standout performance. But that won’t stop the Vols from getting revenge for last season’s ugly loss.
The pick: UT wins 35-31.
Oct. 14: vs. Texas A&M
Last season: Did not play. Texas A&M went 5-7.
The buzz: Not fully convinced of this pick. But UT will lose at least one game that it should win, similar to the South Carolina game last season. Maybe it instead trips up against Florida, South Carolina or Kentucky. But Texas A&M is talented enough to be the spoiler.
The pick: Texas A&M wins 31-26.
Oct. 21: At Alabama
Last season: UT won 52-49. Alabama went 11-2.
The buzz: It will be another classic Third Saturday in October game. But this one will go against the Vols in Tuscaloosa. However, if the Vols beat Alabama in back-to-back seasons, criticism of Nick Saban will reach its apex.
The pick: Alabama wins 40-38.
Oct. 28: At Kentucky
Last season: UT won 44-6. Kentucky went 7-6.
The buzz: After losing a heartbreaker to Alabama, the Vols will need a bounce-back win. They’ll get it in Lexington, as Heupel improves to 3-0 against Kentucky.
The pick: UT wins 42-28.
Nov. 4: vs. Connecticut
Last season: Did not play. UConn went 6-7.
The buzz: UT could score 60-plus points with Milton slinging passes. But Heupel will put Iamaleava into the game sooner than later for valuable reps in anticipation of starting in 2024.
The pick: UT wins 59-10.
Nov. 11: At Missouri
Last season: UT won 66-24. Missouri went 6-7.
The buzz: Remember when UT ran up the score at the end of last season's game? Missouri coach Eliah Drinkwitz will want payback. He won't get it.
The pick: UT wins 52-31.
Nov. 18: vs. Georgia
Last season: Georgia won 27-13. Georgia went 15-0.
The buzz: Neyland Stadium will be rocking for this one. Unfortunately for the Vols, Georgia will circle this game on its calendar too. It’s probably the toughest game the Bulldogs will face en route to the SEC title game.
The pick: Georgia wins 34-27.
Nov. 25: vs. Vanderbilt
Last season: UT won 56-0. Vanderbilt went 5-7.
The buzz: In another resilient performance after a tough loss, the Vols rout the Commodores in Milton’s final game. Next stop: Citrus Bowl to finish another really good season.
The pick: UT wins 56-14.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email[email protected]. Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.
