Tennessee football in another Florida bowl, and other bold predictions
Tennessee football went from pretty good to great in coach Josh Heupel’s first two seasons, but it must replace key players to keep that momentum going.
It leaves open endless possibilities for the Vols’ 2023 season.
Quarterback Joe Milton replaces Hendon Hooker, the SEC Offensive Player of the Year. The wide receiver corps and offensive line have been retooled after sending Jalin Hyatt, Cedric Tillman and Darnell Wright to the NFL. And there’s no clear-cut replacement for All-SEC edge rusher Byron Young.
No. 10 Tennessee starts the season against Virginia on Saturday (11 a.m. CT/noon ET, ABC) at Nissan Stadium in Nashville.
Here are five bold predictions for the Vols.
Tennessee will score 500 points again
UT has broken the single-season school record for scoring in both seasons under Heupel.
In 2021, it had 511 points. Last season, it scored 599 points. Before that, 484 points in 1993 marked the most ever by the Vols.
The 2023 Vols will reach 500 points again and average about 40 points per game. But they won’t break the record, meaning they’ll fall short of 600 points.
That’s quite a high mark for an offense that lost four NFL draft picks. But Heupel’s offense has demonstrated it can reload the lineup and keep scoring.
Three receivers will reach 750 yards
This is a very specific prediction, but there’s a reason for it.
UT may have a 1,000-yard receiver this season like it had with Tillman in 2021 and Hyatt in 2022, but it could be difficult.
There’s a greater chance of parity with these wide receivers.
Bru McCoy had 667 yards receiving last season, and he’ll be featured more in the passing game. Ramel Keyton had 562 yards receiving despite starting only seven games. Squirrel White had 481 yards receiving with just two starts. And Oregon transfer Dont’e Thornton touts potential as a deep threat.
If three of them reach 750 yards, it would be the most in a season under Heupel.
UT will average more than one turnover per game. That should be a given rather than a bold prediction because almost every team makes more mistakes than that.
But the Vols amazingly have committed only 24 turnovers in 26 games under Heupel. They committed 13 turnovers in 13 games in 2021 and 11 turnovers in 13 games in 2022.
Don’t expect UT to suddenly become prone to mistakes. But it could be a little further from perfect than the past two seasons.
Defense will close gap with offense
With Heupel, UT has won mostly because of its top-rated offense. And its defense has been good enough.
But don’t be surprised if the defense, led by linebacker Aaron Beasley, closes that gap just a little.
UT’s defense already showed significant progress, improving from No. 90 in scoring defense in 2021 to No. 36 in 2022. But that was overshadowed by the offense, which jumped to No. 1 in the nation.
This season, look for things to level out a little more. The offense may take a small step back and still be at an elite level, but the defense will keep getting better. If so, this will be the most balanced team of Heupel’s tenure.
Vols will play in another Florida bowl
Sure, UT could make the College Football Playoff with an 11-1 record, or perhaps reach another New Year’s Six Bowl at 10-2, either the Peach Bowl or Orange Bowl.
It’s doubtful the Orange Bowl would take the Vols in consecutive years. But there’s a reasonable chance that UT plays in a different Florida bowl.
A 9-3 record likely would place UT in the Citrus Bowl in Orlando, which seems like a decent bet. It would equal the second-most wins for the Vols in the past 15 seasons and be a good encore to 2022.
An 8-4 record would open the door to the ReliaQuest Bowl (formerly Outback), which has wanted to bring the Vols to Tampa for years. The TaxSlayer Gator Bowl in Jacksonville is another possibility, perhaps with an 8-4 record.
Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email[email protected]. Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing atknoxnews.com/subscribe.
