Tennessee vs. Florida prediction: College football picks, odds

Notable matchups include South Carolina vs. Georgia and LSU vs. Mississippi State. 

But the matchup I’m dying to analyze is Tennessee at Florida. 

The Vols again look like a dominant SEC offense, even with Joe Milton replacing Hendon Hooker.

Milton’s squad dropped 49 on Virginia in a 36-point Week 1 victory. 

Meanwhile, Graham Mertz and the Gators looked pitiful against Utah and failed to cover the 48-point spread against McNeese State. 

Tennessee has looked great, and Florida has looked lousy. 

So, we should bet on Tennessee in Week 3, right? 

Actually, I like to buy low and sell high in these spots. 

Read on for my Tennessee vs. Florida prediction and best bet for Week 3 of the college football season.

Tennessee vs. Florida pick

The Vols were a consistent offensive machine with Hendon Hooker last year.

But I doubt they replicate that same consistent drive-by-drive production with new quarterback Joe Milton, especially since Tennessee lost four starters in the first three rounds of the NFL Draft in the offseason. 

We’ve gotten samples of Joe Milton throughout his college career, and he’s wowed fans with his big arm. 

However, consistency and accuracy remain an issue.

Milton had problems at Michigan (56.7% completion across 161 dropbacks in 2020), and he’s having problems this season. 

Tennessee’s passing attack wasn’t as dominant in Week 1 as the final score indicated, with the Vols posting a lousy 33% Success Rate on Standard Downs.

In Week 2, Milton went just 21-for-33 passing for 224 yards, finishing with a 58.3 Pro Football Focus passing grade, all against FCS Austin Peay! 

The Tennessee passing game already looks inconsistent.

I think it could get worse against SEC defenses. 

Meanwhile, despite what X, formerly known as Twitter, may tell you, Florida didn’t play that poorly against Utah in Week 1. 

The Gators lost 24-11, but the underlying statistics don’t tell the same story:

• Florida created five drives inside Utah’s 40-yard line while holding Utah to four such opportunities
• Florida had a higher Success Rate overall (34% to 32%)
• Florida posted a 50% Success Rate on Standard Downs
• Florida had three more first downs (17 to 14)
• Florida out-gained Utah 346 total yards to 270
• Florida won the time of possession battle (31:52 to 28:08)

If you looked only at this box score, you’d say Florida won the game. 

Instead, a costly Graham Mertz interception and dumb red-zone decisions cost Florida the game (and the cover). 

Speaking of Mertz, I don’t think he’s that horrific of a quarterback.

He was an OK signal caller in a rush-heavy offense at Wisconsin, but his lousy reputation comes from three horrific 2022 games (Michigan State, Maryland, Iowa). 

Against Utah, Mertz went 31-for-44 passing for 333 yards against a stout Utes defense.

He had an adjusted completion percentage greater than 80% and finished with a Pro Football Focus Passing grade of over 70. 

Plus, Mertz could improve in Billy Napier’s offense, which heavily utilizes play-action.

At Wisconsin, Mertz’s passer rating improved by 40 points in play-action sets, but Paul Chryst didn’t call many, given the Badgers preferred to ground and pound behind Braelon Allen. 

The key for the Gators in this game is to stop the Tennessee rushing attack, forcing Milton to beat them through the air. 

The Vols have rushed for more than 500 yards at 6.1 yards per attempt through the first two games.

But they haven’t faced a defense as talented as Florida’s.

Betting on College Football?

The Gators have an intelligent new defensive coordinator (Austin Armstrong from Southern Miss) and some highly-touted front-seven pieces (Cam Jackson, Desmont Watson, Princely Umanmielen, Shemar Jones). 

If the Gators sell out against the Vols’ rush attack, that would put a lot of pressure on an inconsistent quarterback in a hostile environment.

If Milton makes any crucial mistakes, that could cook Tennessee’s chances of covering a touchdown spread as a road favorite. 

On offense, Mertz should make plays against a Tennessee secondary that has experience but has never been effective (106th in Expected Points Added per Pass last year). 

The run game hasn’t clicked yet for Florida, but it should eventually.

The running back duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne is too talented to stay sidelined forever. 

If the Gators start running the ball effectively on Saturday, they’ll be in prime position to control the game flow and stay within the number for 60 minutes. 

For what it’s worth, Tennessee is in a brand-new spot here. 

The Vols have lost 10 straight games in The Swamp, last winning in 2003. 

Meanwhile, coach Napier is 17-5 against the spread as an underdog in his career, covering the spread by an average margin of eight points per game.  

Our Action PRO model projects Tennessee as only a 3.5-point road favorite, and I’m thrilled to bet on the undervalued home underdog catching over six points.