College football betting: Three underdog picks to consider

How we’re betting three college football matchups on Saturday:

Florida (+14.5) over Georgia (in Jacksonville, Fla.)

I like this matchup for Florida. The Gators’ defense is good at preventing inside rush and shorter passing plays, but they’re vulnerable to explosive plays.

Luckily, Georgia’s offense isn’t very explosive, and the downfield passing attack could struggle without Brock Bowers.

Conversely, Georgia’s secondary is elite, but its rush defense is middling. If Florida’s elite running back duo of Montrell Johnson and Trevor Etienne establish the run, it will open up play-action passing looks for Graham Mertz.

And Mertz is a play-action merchant. He’s completing more than 70 percent of his play-action passes for over 9 yards per attempt with nine touchdowns and no picks.

But this handicap mostly comes down to the situational spot.

Georgia is a corpse, sleepwalking through a cookie-cutter schedule. After consecutive national championships and with few marquee games, it’s hard for these young players to stay motivated.

As a result, Bulldogs are 1-6 against the spread this season, letting most opponents keep the game relatively close.

Meanwhile, Billy Napier is 19-6 ATS as an underdog in his coaching career, including 8-1 ATS as a double-digit ’dog.

KANSAS (+9) over Oklahoma

I still think Oklahoma’s overvalued.

The Sooners are plus-10 in turnover margin and have been lucky in big wins.

Take the Texas game.

They were outgained 527-486 but squeaked by thanks to a 3-0 turnover margin and an improbable goal-line stand. The Longhorns also committed nine penalties for 70 yards, compared to Oklahoma’s four for 30.

The regression train hit Oklahoma last week, as it almost dropped a home game to UCF, which has yet to win a Big 12 game.

The Jayhawks boast an explosive offense, ranking top-10 nationally in EPA per Play, even with backup Jason Bean under center.

They should keep this game within single digits at home against the overinflated Sooners.

KENTUCKY (+3.5) over Tennessee

Here’s another solid SEC situational spot. Tennessee is off consecutive physical games against Texas A&M and Alabama.

The Vols are likely fatigued heading into a second straight road game.

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Meanwhile, Kentucky had its bye last week, allowing some previously injured players to return to 100 percent.

Schematically, Kentucky has a decent matchup. The Vols boast a mediocre passing attack behind the inconsistent Joe Milton, instead leaning on an elite rushing attack. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, they rank top-20 nationally in EPA per Rush and YPC allowed (3.1).

The Vols rush defense is also elite but vulnerable to explosive rushes. Behind Ray Davis, who has the sixth-most FBS rushes of 10 or more yards (26), the ’Cats are second nationally in rush explosiveness.

Davis should break several big rushes, while the Vols run into a wall in a letdown spot.

For what it’s worth, Mark Stoops is 20-11 ATS against ranked opponents in his coaching career.

Last week: 0-3. Penn State (L), USC (L), Miami O. (L)
2023 season: 11-12.