Texas A&M vs. LSU Prediction, Preview, and Odds

An SEC West clash goes down in the final week of the regular season between Texas A&M and No. 14 LSU on Saturday. The Aggies (7-4 SU, 4-3 SEC) had an uninspired performance versus Abilene Christian last weekend, winning 38-10 straight up but losing against the spread as -40 favorites at home. The fourteenth-ranked Tigers (8-3 SU, 5-2 SEC) handled their business as -32 favorites versus Georgia Southern, picking up a 56-14 win at home last weekend. Kickoff from Tiger Stadium in Baton Rouge is scheduled for noon EST.

Defense Texas A&M's saving grace

Massive favorites in their last game, the Aggies found themselves trailing, 7-0, following a pick-6 less than two minutes into the game. They snapped out of it enough to pull out victory, but their response was not as persuasive as it should have been. They did manage 448 yards of offense in the victory with 175 rushing yards. Texas A&M is averaging 145.5 rushing yards per game, 10 in the SEC, and their passing game ranks seventh in the conference with 259.5 yards per game. Receiver Ainias Smith has 45 receptions and is eighth in the SEC with 736 receiving yards. He has two touchdown receptions and is one of nine players with at least one.

On defense, the Aggies are one of just three SEC teams allowing less than 20 points per game, with only 19.5 being scored against them on average. Their total defense is yielding just 286.5 yards, best in the conference and eighth best in the nation. They’ve only intercepted seven passes, tied for second fewest in the SEC, but their 40 sacks are six more than any other SEC team and are third most in the nation. Edgerrin Cooper leads the Aggies with seven sacks, tied for fourth most in the conference. The junior linebacker had just a half sack to his name prior to this season. He has also forced two fumbles this year and has 39 tackles.

Edgerrin Cooper with a forced fumble and Demani Richardson for the scope and score.

Game changing plays like this will help the Aggies beat LSU Saturday!

HAPPY THANKSGIVING ������️#BTHOlsupic.twitter.com/oOQvbGUXYv

— Kyle Lovinggood ������ (@kloveaggs) November 23, 2023

LSU offense a force

The Tigers have played furiously since their loss to Alabama three weeks back. In their two games since they have scored a combined 108 points and averaged 641.5 yards of offense per game. They top the SEC with 562.2 yards of total offense and 46.8 points per game, both of which are also the best in the country. With 218.9 rushing yards per game, the Tigers rank sixth in the country. Quarterback Jayden Daniels leads the conference with 3,577 passing yards and is second in the SEC with 1,014 rushing yards. He has thrown 36 touchdown passes, most in the country, with just four interceptions. Daniels also rushed for 12 TDs.

LSU’s defense is where they struggle, allowing 410.9 total yards per game, second most in the SEC. They are also giving up 27.5 points per game, which is the third highest average against in the conference. The 169.5 rushing yards allowed per game are second most in the SEC. They have not done well to get pressure on the opposing QB, recording just 22 sacks on the year to go along with only nine interceptions. Harold Perkins Jr. has accounted for five of the team’s sacks and is fourth on the team with 61 tackles. The sophomore linebacker also has an interception, four passes defended and three forced fumbles.

Best Bets

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LSU owns a 35-23-3 SU record in the overall head-to-head matchup between these schools and they’ve gone 7-3 SU and 9-1 ATS over the last ten meetings. The Aggies have not won in Baton Rouge since 1994 and it doesn’t appear that will change this Saturday. The Tigers have played like a team possessed since Alabama kicked them in the mouth a few weeks back. They will be tested by the Aggies defense, but Daniels can make the offense roll in whatever area is working best for LSU. Texas A&M and has not faced an offensive force like the Tigers QB and after their showing last week against a cupcake, I fear they won’t be able to handle the moment.

Take the Tigers giving the points.

Prediction: LSU -11.5

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The over is 5-5 in the last ten meetings and 5-2 over the last seven. Last season’s meeting saw the two tally a combined 61 points and the year prior, 51 points, both overs. They have only scored more than 66.5 points once in their last six meetings. This LSU offense is no doubt a juggernaut, but the A&M offense will be the concern here. With that said, LSU’s defense is soft enough to allow the Aggies ample room to be a contributor to this total. The Tigers allowed Florida to score 35 points against them two weeks back and the Aggies offense is more productive than the Gators this season. It’s the regular season finale, so time to let it fly.

Take the over.

Prediction: Over 66.5

A sportswriter for over a decade, Craig has covered everything from the little leagues to the big leagues. His work has been seen on MLB.com, ESPN.com and in the sports pages of the Boston Globe and Miami Herald, among others. Having had a front-row seat to all the action, he has been able to positively blend a little bit of the old and the new when it comes to analyzing the game and breaking it all down. Though longing for the days of the old football card that would be passed around in the halls of high school, Craig is happy to see the business flourishing and ready to put his own mark on things as he joins our team here at StatSalt and Winners & Whiners.