Texas Longhorns vs Houston Cougars Prediction, Odds and Picks

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Following a heartbreaking loss against Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl, Texas had a week off to re-calibrate and re-focus on finishing the regular season without another blemish on its resume. The Longhorns will get back to work with a short road trip to Houston to take on the Cougars for not only the first time as conference opponents but the first time in more than 20 years. Meanwhile, Houston will have its second straight home game when it welcomes the Longhorns to town. The Cougars come into this contest off a miraculous Hail Mary win over West Virginia last Thursday – a game in which they were out-gained by just over 150 yards and possessed the ball for nearly 14 minutes less than the Mountaineers. While Houston is the home team in this game, this is a tough spot to be in. Texas should be extremely motivated following its loss to Oklahoma, and its offense seems to have a great matchup against Houston’s struggling defense. The Cougars are outside the top 105 in defensive PPA since week 3 and they have not shown an ability to limit opposition from scoring once the ball gets past their 40 yards line. In fact, the Cougars are 115th in points per opportunity allowed since Week 3, yielding an average of more than 4.5 points every time their opponent crosses their 40. Offensively, Houston is very pass-heavy and has struggled to finish drives against what Sagarin rates the 57th-most difficult schedule in college football. The Cougars have scored less than 3.5 points per opportunity since Week 3, and they have not been very good on early downs – which will put them in difficult passing situations against a Texas defense that is top 20 in PPA per pass and passing success rate allowed in the last 5 weeks. 

The Longhorns are 2-0 SU and ATS on the road this season with a win as underdogs at Alabama and a blowout win and cover against Baylor in late September. This proves they can win in one of the most hostile environments in college football while simultaneously proving the ‘Horns can cover big spreads against in-state conference opponents. With an offense that is top 20 in points per drive and touchdown rate this season, expect the Longhorns to score often against the Cougars and to win by margin against an inefficient defense that has yielded 67 points in its last 2 games.

Texas -23.5 available at time of publishing. Playable to -24. 

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email [email protected].