Texas Longhorns vs Iowa State Cyclones Prediction, Odds and Picks

Vote on who will cover the spread!

Point Spread Pick

The Texas Longhorns had as many punts as they did points in the second half of their 29-26 win at TCU last week, a game in which they led by as many as 20 points. Unfortunately, running back Jonathan Brooks tore his ACL in the fourth quarter, so the Longhorns will be without him for the rest of the season. Brooks’ absence will be felt, as he was tied for the best PFF run grade in the Big 12 and was 2nd in the conference in missed tackles forced. Highly-touted freshman CJ Baxter figures to take over the lead role for the remainder of the season with 87 carries, 390 yards and 3 touchdowns under his belt. 

Without Brooks, Iowa State needs to focus on shutting down the lethal Texas passing attack. However, the Cyclones have not been very good against the pass since the beginning of October. They are 70th in PPA per pass and 127th in pass explosiveness allowed in non-garbage time since Week 6, which Quinn Ewers will likely pick apart with time in the pocket. According to PFF, Texas’ offensive line is the best pass-blocking unit in the Big 12 while Iowa State is 12th in pass-rush out of 14 teams. Furthermore, Ewers has at least 3 NFL-caliber playmakers at his disposal with Xavier Worthy, Adonai Mitchell and Ja’Tavion Sanders who should have their way with the Cyclone secondary – much like Okahoma’s offense did in its 50-20 win over Iowa State earlier this season. While Iowa State’s 6-4 record is strong and the Cyclones lead the Big 12 in PFF coverage, their 5 conference wins include 4 over teams that are in the bottom 5 in the conference in scoring, making their defensive statistics a bit inflated. Texas has the strongest offense Iowa State has seen since Oklahoma nearly 6 weeks ago and should be able to find the end zone often. For what it’s worth, Texas also boasts the best scoring defense in the Big 12, yielding an average of 20 points per game against conference opponents. I’ll lay the points with the ‘Horns. 

Texas -7.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to Texas -8.

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Game Totals Pick

I do not expect too much tempo in this game. Iowa State plays at one of the slowest paces in the country, averaging over 29 seconds in between plays – which is in the bottom 15 nationally. Moreover, Texas does not play at what I consider an up-tempo pace. These offenses will likely be methodical in their approach, but I do not think Iowa State will have much success scoring throughout the game. The Cyclones are 84th in offensive success rate and 118th in explosiveness in non-garbage time since Week 6, and they score just 3.64 points per opportunity – which is 75th nationally since early October. Texas also struggles to finish drives at times, scoring 3.88 points per trip inside the opposing 40.

Texas theoretically could score enough to push the game over the total pretty much by itself, but I do not envision the Longhorns surpassing 35 points without Jonathan Brooks. That combined with Texas’ expected defense advantage is enough for me to recommend the under on this Big 12 primetime matchup. 

Under 47.5 (-110) available at time of publishing. Playable to under 47.

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Long-time suffering Browns fan born and raised in the greater Cleveland, Ohio area who now resides in SEC country. University of South Carolina alum. Sports handicapper for close to 10 years with a primary focus on NCAAB while enjoying NFL, PGA, NCAAF, NBA, and Soccer. For Sam Avellone media enquiries, please email [email protected].