Texas State Bobcats vs. Baylor Bears 9223-Free Pick, NCAA Odds

Free NCAA Pick: Texas State vs. Baylor Odds

Looking for Texas State Bobcats vs. Baylor Bears free NCAA Week 1 picks & NCAA odds? NCAA betting sees the Bobcats taking on the Bears on Saturday, September 2nd at the McLane Stadium. Cappers Picks provides complimentary NCAA handicapping picks all season long including all NCAA Week 1 games so stay tuned for more FREE NCAA predictions like this Texas State Baylor matchup.

2023 NCAAF Handicapping Analysis: Week 1

In the most recent head-to-head matchup between the teams, Baylor picked up the 42-7 win (last year). On the defensive end, Baylor put the clamps down on Texas State as they threw for 186 yards. Offensively, Baylor finished with 501 yards of total offense with 208 in the passing game and 293 on the ground.

Texas State Bobcats

Last season, the Bobcats put together a record of 4-8 and finished 12th in the Sun Belt – West while going 1-5 in conference play. In the non-conference portion of their schedule, the Bobcats went 3-3 and did not qualify for a post-season bowl game.

Texas State Bobcats Stats

At the quarterback position, the Bobcats will need to replace the production of last year’s leading passer (Layne Hatcher). For the season, he completed 62.1% of his passes for 2649 yards and 19 touchdowns.

In the running game, the Bobcats’ leading returning running back is Lincoln Pare (junior) who ran for 760 yards last season. Texas State’s top returning wide receiver is Ashtyn Hawkins. The junior caught 55 passes for 582 yards last season.

The Texas State defense gave up 26.3 passing yards per contest last season, putting them 91st in the nation. Opponents threw the ball an average of 34.9 times per game vs. Texas State. Overall their secondary was 123rd in passing yards allowed (244.9). On the ground, they were 31st, giving up 116.8 rushing yards per per game.

Baylor Bears

Baylor wrapped up last season with a trip to the Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl and fell to Air Force by a score of 30-15. In the Big 12, the Bears were 4-6, putting them in 6th place. In the non-conference portion of their schedule, Baylor was 2-1.

Baylor Bears Stats

At the quarterback position, the Bears are returning last year’s leading passer, Blake Shapen. Last year, he threw for 2790 yards and threw 18 touchdowns. Overall, he completed 63.3% of his passes and finished with a passer rating of 91.

Baylor’s top returning wide receiver is Monaray Baldwin, who is coming off a season in which he finished with 565 on 33 receptions. Richard Reese is Baylor’s top returning rusher with 972 rushing yards last year.

Last year’s Baylor defense gave up an average of 222.8 passing yards per game. This figure put them 86th in the country compared to a rush defense that was 79th in the NCAA. Overall, they gave up an average of 26.8 (110th).

Texas State Bobcats vs. Baylor Bears NCAA Football Betting Trends

• The Bobcats are 2-3 in their last five games as an underdog.
• Conversely, the Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five games as a favorite.
• Also, the Bobcats are 4-6 ATS in their last ten road games.
• On the other side, the Bears have gone 6-4 across their last ten home games.
• Over the Bobcats’ last 3 road games, the over/under record is 2-1.
• The Bears’ have an over/under record of 3-0 in their last 3 games at home.

Texas State vs. Baylor Line Movement

4* Free Week 1 NCAA Betting Prediction: Texas State +27.5

Last season, teams that were favored on the spread, went on to cover at a rate of just 46.9%. I like the value in grabbing Texas State at +27.5 in their matchup vs. Baylor.

Strong Lean Over!

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Texas State Bobcats vs. Baylor Bears NCAA Betting Tweet Of The Day

— Bear Foundation (@BearFoundation) August 31, 2023

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