Texas State vs. Rice Prediction, Preview, and Odds
The 2023 SERVPRO First Responder Bowl brings together two in-state rivals, the high-powered 7-5 Texas State Bobcats from the Sun Belt and the methodical 6-6 Rice Owls representing Conference USA. Texas State makes their first-ever bowl appearance after most of their football existence was spent in the FCS. The Bobcats, led by their dynamic offense and bright young head coach GJ Kinne, look to cap off a successful season with a statement victory. On the other side, the Rice Owls, with a 6-6 record, bring a balanced and disciplined approach to the game. All eyes, or at least a few will be on SMU's campus as the Mustang's home field, Gerald J. Ford Stadium, in University Park, TX.
Texas State (-5.5) @ Rice (T:59.5)
First Ever Bowling Trip
The Texas State experience, where unpredictability reigns supreme. The Bobcats could be racking up over 500 yards of total offense, scoring a staggering 77 points... or allowing a staggering 77 points, every game is a rollercoaster of worry and excitement for the folks in San Marcos. GJ Kinne, the dynamic head coach, has emerged as one of the brightest young minds in college football. Against all odds, he transformed a program that hadn't seen more than four wins since 2014 into one of the most entertaining teams in the Sun Belt. The Texas State squad is synonymous with high-octane offense, relentless energy, and standout performances on both sides of the ball, which as led them to their ever FBS postseason appearance. Former LSU and Auburn quarterback TJ Finley adds to the spectacle, showcasing his prowess with the SEC he experience he gathered from both sets of Tigers. For those unfamiliar with Texas State's style, they take risks, create turnovers, and bombard the field with offensive attacks.
Rice, the upcoming adversary, must prepare for the onslaught on offense and yardage. To counter Texas State's offense, the Owls will need to control the tempo and capitalize on turnovers, areas where the Bobcats have shown weakness. Texas State's struggle at keeping the ball is matched only by their ability to take the ball away However, Rice faces challenges in these aspects. With a sketchy running game and limited proficiency in takeaways, they need to find innovative ways to navigate the Bobcats' offense. Additionally, countering Texas State's incredible pass rush demands a quick-hitting passing game. As the two teams collide, the clash of styles promises a captivating spectacle, with Texas State's fearless approach pitted against Rice's need for strategic precision.
MOB'ed
The spotlight is on QB AJ Padgett as he steps into a significant role for Fightin' Owls, taking over the reins from the medically retired journeyman, JT Daniels. Despite his limited experience, Padgett showcased promise in the last few games, steering the offense with six touchdown passes and three interceptions. Notably, he maintained a commendable 64% completion rate throughout the year. Texas State's performance record against opposing passers is telling, boasting a 4-0 record when facing those who failed to hit the 64% completion mark, but struggling at 3-5 when confronted with more accurate quarterbacks. As Padgett aims to lead the offense against Texas State, his ability to connect on midrange throws becomes crucial, especially against a defense that struggles on third downs. The Owls' strategy hinges on Padgett's efficiency, hoping to exploit the vulnerabilities in the opposing defense to keep the pace and stay competitive.
In facing Rice, Texas State encounters a team that may not match its flair but possesses a well-rounded offensive approach. Rice, known for its ability to move the ball through the air, complements its passing game with a competent ground attack. The key for the Owls lies in executing a simple yet effective game plan — stick to the run, make Padgett connect on midrange throws, and capitalize on a Texas State defense that falters on third downs. Rice's perfect 5-0 record when running the ball more than 30 times puts the pressure on the Bobcat defense to get off the field even in third and short situation and leaves the opportunity for the Owls to make a few moments a four down circumstance. Even if the Owls find themselves trailing, the emphasis on persistence to the run becomes even more difficult. With the knowledge that Texas State's defense has struggled against teams running more than 30 times, Rice cannot let Texas State score 28+ points in the first half to even have a shot.
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Quarterback TJ Finley and first-year head coach GJ Kinne has changed the footballing narrative in San Marcos. Finley, drawing from his SEC experience, has proven to be a spectacular asset for the Bobcats, contributing to the transformation of Texas State into an offensive juggernaut under Kinne's guidance. The team's success has been evident, and the 5.5-point spread reflects the confidence in their ability to outscore opponents, even with their own defensive limits against a good Owls offense, with Finley orchestrating the attack and a wealth of offensive talent at their disposal. Rice, on the other hand, may face challenges in slowing down the Texas State offensive machine, particularly with their limited proficiency in generating takeaways. The ability to disrupt Texas State's rhythm has been critical in the games where the Bobcats have struggled. However, it'll be a track meet and Rice might have left their shoes in Houston.
Prediction: Texas State Bobcats -5.5
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While both teams may not have been in the national spotlight, this matchup offers the perfect opportunity to witness a showcase of explosive plays, big moments, and offensive fireworks. It's the kind of game where you kick back, relax, and enjoy the unpredictable show that college football can deliver... all on a Tuesday night. Both teams are expected to go all-in on offense, unleashing big plays and accumulating significant yardage. The game may not always be a shootout, but with two teams ready to open up their playbooks, a high-scoring affair seems likely. The expectation is that both teams will be close to a full go, ensuring an entertaining matchup even if it's not competitive.
Prediction: Over 59.5
Starting the show If Anyone Cares at 16 years old, Riley James has risen up the ranks as a podcaster, writer, broadcaster, and filmmaker. He has hosted several shows in his career and worked as a freelance creator. Riley is also credited with being the youngest credentialed member in MLS history (16). Beginning to cover Major League Soccer full time when he was 17, he also dabbled in writing and commentating for the 2018 and 2020 Olympics, college football, the NBA, the NFL, and European soccer. He has used his experience in covering various sports, coupled with a strong handicapping presence to join our team here at Winners & Whiners & StatSalt.
