Texas Tech vs. California odds, line, spread: 2023 Independence Bowl picks, predictions from proven expert

The California Golden Bears and Texas Tech Raiders will look to finish with a winning record when they clash in the 2023 Independence Bowl on Saturday. The Golden Bears (6-6), who are on a three-game winning streak, are looking to register their first winning season since 2019, when they went 8-5 with a victory in the Redbox Bowl. The Red Raiders (6-6), who have finished with a winning record in each of the past two seasons, have won five of their last eight games after starting the season 1-3. This will be the second meeting between the teams, with Texas Tech holding a 1-0 series edge.

The game from Independence Stadium in Shreveport, La., is slated to start at 9:15 p.m. ET. The Bears were eighth in the Pac-12 in total offense at 395.7 yards per game, while the Red Raiders were 10th at 386.9. The Red Raiders are favored by 3.5 points in the latest California vs. Texas Tech odds from SportsLine consensus odds, while the over/under for total points scored is 58. Before making any Texas Tech vs. California picks, .

A CBS Sports writer since 2010, the entertaining Fornelli is perhaps best known for his college football expertise. He co-hosts the popular Cover 3 Podcast and appears regularly on CBS Sports HQ. You'll get maximum access to Fornelli's picks only on SportsLine. What's more, he has demonstrated a particularly sharp eye for the Cal Bears. In fact, Fornelli is on a 5-0 roll on college football picks involving California. Anyone who has followed him is way up.

Now, he has set his sights on Texas Tech vs. Cal and locked in his picks and CFB predictions. You can visit SportsLine now to see his picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and betting lines for Cal vs. Texas Tech:

• California vs. Texas Tech spread: Texas Tech -3.5
• California vs. Texas Tech over/under: 58 points
• California vs. Texas Tech money line: California +145, Texas Tech -174
• CAL: The Bears have won three straight games (+4.80 units on ML)
• TT: The Red Raiders have hit the game total under in 8 of their last 13 games (+2.50 units)
• California vs. Texas Tech picks: See picks at SportsLine
• California vs. Texas Tech live stream: fubo (try for free)

Why Texas Tech can cover

Senior wide receiver Xavier White continues to be a big part of the Red Raiders offense. In five seasons with the team, he has 128 career receptions for 1,463 yards (11.4 average) and six touchdowns. This season, he has caught 34 passes for a team-high 495 yards (14.6 average) and one touchdown. His touchdown came in a 27-14 loss at BYU on Oct. 21, when he caught three passes for 98 yards, including a 72-yarder.

Defensively, freshman linebacker Ben Roberts has had a tremendous season. He leads Tech with 100 tackles, including 53 solo, including one-half sack for two yards. Roberts has forced two fumbles and intercepted one pass he returned five yards. Despite the Red Raiders' big loss at No. 7 Texas on Nov. 24, he made 13 stops, including six solo. He also had 10 tackles, including five solo, in the loss at BYU. See which team to pick here.

Why California can cover 

Freshman quarterback Fernando Mendoza is off to a solid start to his collegiate career. He finished the season by completing 131 of 210 passes (62.4%) for 1,447 yards and 13 touchdowns with seven interceptions. He also has rushed for a pair of scores. Mendoza completed 24 of 36 passes (66.7%) for 294 yards and three touchdowns with one pick in a 27-15 win at Stanford on Nov. 18. He threw for two or more scores in six of the eight games he has played in.

Also helping power the offense is sophomore running back Jaydn Ott. After rushing for 897 yards and eight scores his freshman year, he followed that up by carrying 229 times for 1,260 yards (5.5 average) and 11 touchdowns. He has rushed for 100 or more yards in five games, including a season-high 188 yards and two touchdowns on 20 carries (9.4 average) in a 58-21 win at North Texas on Sept. 2. In the win at Stanford, he rushed 36 times for 166 yards (4.6 average) and one TD. See which team to pick here.

How to make California vs. Texas Tech picks

Fornelli is leaning Under on the total. He's also found a critical x-factor that has him jumping all over one side of the spread. See what it is at SportsLine.