The American Express Odds, Picks, Predictions: Jon Rahm Seeks 2nd Win of 2023

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16 January 2023

The American Express Odds, Picks, Predictions: Jon Rahm Seeks 2nd Win of 2023

The PGA Tour returns to the mainland for this week's American Express in La Quinta, Calif. While Jon Rahm tops the consensus odds board, we dive deeper in search of the best value picks for the 2023 American Express based on the top odds at our best sportsbooks.

Rahm returns to the site of his 2018 playoff victory (then known as the CareerBuilder Challenge) already with a win under his belt for 2023. The winner of the Sentry Tournament of Champions enters this week at No. 4 in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) and as the consensus favorite to win at PGA West.

To claim his second victory of the calendar year, Rahm will need to hold off last week's Sony Open winner and 2021 American Express champ Si Woo Kim and a fleet of other top-ranked contenders. Scottie Scheffler (2), Patrick Cantlay (5), Tony Finau (12), and Xander Schauffele (6) are among the 11 golfers from the top 25 of the OWGR in the field.

Read on for our top picks for the 2023 American Express (odds via our best sportsbooks).

American Express Odds

American Express Odds Analysis

Credit to DraftKings Sportsbook, FanDuel Sportsbook, and BetMGM for being the first of our best sportsbooks to have odds posted for the 2023 American Express. There was plenty of early movement near the top of the board as the books reacted to early money.

Through it all, Rahm is the consensus favorite with an implied win probability as high as 15.38%. It's tough to argue with that due to his prior win at the this venue and his victory in Hawaii. However, I'd suggest holding off on betting the favorite until later in the week as the strong field could help disperse the tournament betting handle and force the books to raise Rahm's odds to win.

Schauffele, as the fourth-best golfer in the field based on the world ranks, is slightly discounted but that's due to his withdrawal from the Sony TOC due to injury. Bettors wishing to back the American need to be cautious in case he attempts to tee it up again and is forced to pull out after his opening tee shot.

American Express Picks

PGA West Course Profile (Pete Dye Stadium Course)

Par: 72
Length: 7,187 yards
Greens: Bermuda

The PGA Tour's West Coast swing consists of several venues that see the tournament split over two or three courses. The American Express uses a three-course rotation—the Pete Dye Stadium Course, La Quinta Country Club, and the Nicklaus Tournament Course. Each of the three plays to a par of 72 and ranges from 7,060 yards (La Quinta CC) to 7,187 yards (Stadium Course). Each golfer will play each of the three courses over the first three days. After Saturday evening's 54-hole cut, the remaining 65 golfers (plus ties) will play the Stadium Course for a second time on Sunday.

The winning score of this tournament has been minus-20 or better every year since Charley Hoffman won at minus-17 in 2007. The Stadium Course is the most difficult of the three in this week's rotation, but that's not a very stiff competition. Water and the par 3s represent the greatest challenges to scorecards.

The most common par-4 range between all three courses is between 400 and 450 yards with 13 such holes out of the 30 total par 4s. However, 10 are also shorter than 400 yards, catering to a specific type of golfer that needs to be considered a little more than at other venues. Just five of the 12 par 3s between all three courses top 200 yards.

Many of the par 5s at PGA West are reachable in two, so be prepared for the annual scoring fest that is The American Express.

American Express Key Stats

Strokes gained: around-the-green
SG: off-the-tee
Birdie or better percentage
Sand-save percentage
Par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards
Proximity: 150-175 yards

With PGA West being a staple venue on the PGA Tour, there's plenty of course history from which to draw this week, even with the Stadium Course being used for just two rounds each year. This is valuable information to use along with our above key stats.

Play around the green is emphasized on the Stadium Course (as it usually is at a Pete Dye-designed venue). We can use several TPC layouts as comparable courses, including TPC Sawgrass. Choose distance over accuracy when looking at strokes gained: off-the-tee, as all three courses feature wide fairways with little punishment in the rough.

Birdie or better percentage and/or scoring average should be strongly factored into consideration, especially on the most common par-4 range of 400-450 yards. Sand-save percentage can be used as a tiebreaker between golfers with similar odds.

Who Will Win The American Express?

Sungjae Im (+2500 via Caesars)

Im is one of the highest-ranked players—in the world and in this field—who played both events in Hawaii. Though he followed up his promising T-13 finish at the Sentry Tournament of Champions with a missed cut last week, that has helped boost his odds against the stronger field this week after he had consensus odds of +1200 a week ago.

At No. 19 in the OWGR, Im is the ninth-best golfer in the field by that measure. He's priced at a premium this week with a share of the seventh-best odds at DraftKings, but those are rightfully suppressed due to his course and tournament history. Im finished T-12 or better in each of his last four appearances at PGA West, and he has averaged 2.35 true strokes gained per round on the field across nine career rounds on the Stadium Course.

We're getting our best value via Caesars after DraftKings and BetMGM opened at +2200.

Tom Hoge (+4200 via FanDuel)

Hoge was the runner-up in this event last year just a couple of weeks before claiming his first PGA Tour win at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am last February. Hailing from Statesville, NC, Hoge has a clear penchant for West Coast golf courses.

That second-place finish at last year's American Express came despite 0.33 strokes lost per round on the greens at the Stadium Course. Helping to mask that deficiency, Hoge ranked second in the field with 2.34 SG: around-the-green per round over those 36 holes. While that was his best finish in seven events at PGA West, it came just two years after a T-6 showing.

DraftKings has odds as low as +3500 for Hoge to win this week, so be sure to get the +4200 available via FanDuel. Hoge lost strokes around the green last week at Waialae Country Club in Honolulu, but he was third in the field in SG: putting during his fourth round en route to a T-41 finish. He had odds as low as +2000 to win last week.

Sahith Theegala (+6600 via PointsBet)

Theegala, a native of Orange Country, Calif. has been pegged by many as a potential breakthrough player for the 2022-23 PGA Tour season. Though he enters this week still without an individual win on the PGA Tour, he's 40th in the OWGR after recording three finishes of T-6 or better on the fall swing. He also won the QBE Shootout while paired with Hoge during that stretch.

The Californian debuted at The American Express last year with a T-33 finish. While that was largely fueled by his play on La Quinta CC and the Nicklaus Tournament Course, he still gained strokes off the tee and on the greens across two rounds on the Stadium Course.

These odds opened as high as +6000 via BetMGM. After they were quickly lowered across the board, PointsBet has the new best price of +6600 as of Monday afternoon. I'd act quickly before PointsBet mirrors the downward move of most other books.