PGA Championship Outright Picks & Predictions 2023

The second major of the year, the 2023 PGA Championship, is nearly underway at Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY. As Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler emerge as the early favorites, our PGA Championship outright picks and predictions provide an in-depth analysis of the best odds, along with a course preview and the essential key stats you need to know for this prestigious tournament.  

Jason Day won last week's AT&T Byron Nelson to make him among the biggest movers in the PGA Championship odds among our best sports betting apps entering tournament week, but Scottie Scheffler's T-5 finish pulled him into a tie with Jon Rahm as consensus favorites.

With Oak Hill Country Club in Rochester, NY, hosting the PGA Championship (and the PGA Tour) for the first time since 2013, we don't have much valuable course history info to go off of this week. Still, we'll preview the course and look at the key stats to know with our best PGA Championship outright picks and predictions.

PGA Championship outright picks

• Rory McIlroy (+1600 via DraftKings)
• Tony Finau (+2200 via PointsBet)
• Cameron Young (+3500 via DraftKings)

PGA Championship picks to win

Rory McIlroy to win (+1600)

Bet $5, Get $150 in Bonus Bets

What makes golf different (and more enjoyable to bet) than the Big Six team sports in North America is that we can keep going back to the well with a popular pick despite a poor recent run because the odds have increased. In the case of McIlroy's odds, the prices have increased to the point where it would be malpractice to not bet on him for a third career Wanamaker Trophy with our PGA Championship outright picks. Oddly, we're getting a much lower number in McIlroy's U.S. Open odds.

McIlroy is third on the consensus oddsboard at our best sports betting apps and is available with odds as high as the +1600 via DraftKings. However, we're going to side strongly with DraftKings because its one-time +300 odds surge on any outright pick brings McIlroy's odds up to +1900. That moves his odds above those of Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay, who have logged a combined zero major wins.

Yes, McIlroy completely flamed out with a missed cut during The Players Championship and in the Masters as the betting favorite. And he finished just T-47 in the Wells Fargo Championship. However, the No. 3 golfer in the OWGR won the 2022 Tour Championship, with two other international victories since.

Like the Tour Championship, the 2023 PGA Championship will be played at a course that famed golf architect Donald Ross originally designed. That suited McIlroy well with his T-8 finish at Oak Hill CC in 2013.

McIlroy won't face the same pressures at Oak Hill that he regularly deals with at Augusta National, where he seeks the career grand slam. He's also taken a longer-than-usual break from competitive golf during the leadup to this event and should be well-prepped. Our Neil Parker is also backing McIlroy with his PGA Championship expert picks.

Enter SBR's PGA Championship Challenge and make your picks daily for a shot at the $175 prize pool.

Tony Finau (+2200 via DraftKings, BetMGM)

$1,000 back in Bonus Bets

Finau enters the 2023 PGA Championship off a win in the Mexico Open at Vidanta, where he did the impossible and held off Rahm, and a T-23 finish the following week in the elevated Wells Fargo Championship. Those results extended his streak to 14 straight made cuts dating back to last fall when he won the Houston Open.

With four victories within the last 365 days, Finau is back up to No. 12 in the OWGR entering the week. While he produced a lackluster tie for 30th in last year's PGA Championship, he tied for eighth in 2021 and for fourth in 2020. He's registered 10 career top-10 finishes across 27 major appearances.

Statistically, Finau ranks third among qualified golfers with 1.27 strokes gained: approach across his last 24 measured rounds. His 2.22 SG: total ranks fifth, and he grades positively in both distance and accuracy off the tee.

Cameron Young to win (+3300 via PointsBet)

5 Second Chance Bets up to $50 Each

We've been tracking Young's PGA Championship odds closely for the better part of a year, with Oak Hill CC located just upstate of his hometown of Scarborough, NY.

The reigning PGA Tour Rookie of the Year and current 15th-ranked golfer in the world hasn't yet been able to recapture his 2022 form. However, he notched a runner-up finish in the Asian Tour's PIF Saudi International against a field that included many of the top names from the LIV Golf Series. He also tied for 10th in an elevated field during the Arnold Palmer Invitational, was the runner-up to Sam Burns in the WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, and tied for seventh in the Masters.

Young has gained strokes in all key areas across his last 24 measured rounds, and he ranks second to McIlroy in distance off the tee during that time while being more accurate than the Northern Irishman.

Young's outright odds are as low as +2000 via Caesars, so we're getting a good bargain through PointsBet for Young's first PGA Tour win.

PGA Championship betting preview

PGA Championship odds 2023

(Odds as of Wednesday, May 17 at 6:40 p.m. ET)

PGA Championship tournament info

When: Thursday, May 18 - Sunday, May 21
Where: Oak Hill Country Club, Rochester, NY
How to watch: ESPN and CBS
Purse: $15 million

PGA Championship field

The PGA Championship field consists of 156 golfers. Notable withdrawals over the weekend include Jason Dufner, who won the 2013 PGA Championship at Oak Hill Country Club, and Martin Kaymer of the LIV Golf Invitational Series.

Justin Thomas is the reigning winner of the PGA Championship, claiming his second Wanamaker Trophy at Southern Hills in Tulsa, OK, last year. Rahm and Scheffler are looking for their third and second career major wins, respectively, Rory McIlroy is looking for his third Wanamaker Trophy, and Jordan Spieth will try again to complete the career grand slam.

Cameron Young, from Scarborough, NY, is among the New York natives looking to win a major in their home state. Former major champion, Keegan Bradley, attended nearby St. John's University and is among our PGA Championship sleeper and long-shot picks.

The PGA Championship is the only one of the four majors to not extend invites to amateurs. Eighteen members of the LIV Golf Invitational Series were invited, but Kaymer withdrew due to injury.

Oak Hill Country Club course profile

Par: 70
Length: 7,394 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Architect: Donald Ross

Oak Hill Country Club will look considerably different than how it did in 2013, for those who may remember and are looking to lean heavily on course history. The course will play about 250 yards longer overall and three holes are completely new. The greens were also switched from a Bentgrass/Poa annua blend to fully Bentgrass, many trees were removed, and bunkers were either removed or repositioned.

Both par 5s exceed 600 yards under championship conditions. Two of the four par 3s top 200 yards. Seven of 12 par 4s top 450 yards, with two longer than 500 yards and just one shorter than 400 yards. 

The heavily contoured greens are carefully designed to run off into the greenside bunkers if approach shots aren't carefully placed on the proper level. Allen's Creek also meticulously meanders the course to catch any approach shots that may come up short.

Other famed Donald Ross courses include East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta, GA, as the home of the Tour Championship, Pinehurst No. 2 (home of the Farmers Insurance Open and past U.S. Opens), Aronimink Golf Club (host of the  1962 PGA Championship), and Seminole Golf Club in Juno Beach, FL.

PGA Championship key stats to know

• Strokes gained: approach
• SG: off-the-tee
• SG: around-the-green
• Scrambling percentage
• Bogey avoidance
• Proximity from 200-plus yards

Oak Hill CC is a long par-70 course at nearly 7,400 yards, but the toughest test will be the greens. Approach shots need to be hit to the correct level of the green. Strokes gained: around-the-green is highly important with scrambling percentage and bogey avoidance strongly tied as correlated stats.

Those who are able to gain strokes on approaches from 200-plus yards will also be at an advantage, but the trouble around the putting surfaces may deter many from attempting those shots too often.

How to bet the PGA Championship

As of Monday morning, bettors can use the PGA Championship odds to bet on the outright winner as well as placing markets including top 5, top 10, top 20, and top 40, as well as the first-round (18-hole) leader.

Additional markets include head-to-head and 3-ball matchups for the first round or the tournament as a whole, along with nationality props for the top finisher from each major geographical region, golfer props including to make a hole-in-one, winning margin, and whether there'll be a playoff.

Price shopping at our best sports betting apps is highly important for betting on the PGA Championship and other golf majors. Not all sportsbooks will offer the same markets and tremendous advantages can be had by shopping around for the best available odds in both the outright and prop markets.

Be on the watch for the best sportsbook promos that will enhance the odds offering on the golfers you're looking to bet this week.

Recent PGA Championship winners

(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.