2024 American Express Odds: Golf Betting Preview & Breakdown

This week, Joe Cistaro breaks down PGA golf betting tips for the 2024 American Express. You can use the PrizePicks referral codeGRINDERS to claim a $100 deposit bonus on golf props today!

Grayson Murray outlasted his peers at the Sony Open for a resurgent win for the tour veteran. A “new” winner on the PGA Tour so early in the season is very welcome, and this week’s American Express seems to be a great spot for another breakout victory. The Pro-Am aspect of this event could lead to some slow golf, but golf is still golf. Let’s dig into the field, the rotation of courses, and some strokes gained statistics to start the golf betting process.

American Express Odds at DraftKings Sportsbook

At the time of this writing – January 16th – you can find these odds at DraftKings Sportsbook. The below list features all golfers priced at 50/1 or better.

Here are the recent winners of the American Express:

• 2023 – Jon Rahm (-27)
• 2022 – Hudson Swafford (-23)
• 2021 – Si Woo Kim (-23)
• 2020 – Andrew Landry (-26)
• 2019 – Adam Long (-26)
• 2018 – Jon Rahm (-22)

The American Express continues to fetch some larger names despite being a pro-am ahead of some bigger elevated events. Jon Rahm will be notably absent — one of our first opportunities to miss the golf great on tour. Rahm was a two-time winner here but will still leave some very big names behind in the field. Scottie Scheffler, Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, and others will play the weekend. Justin Thomas makes his first start in the 2024 season with designs on atoning for a very rocky 2023.

For the last time, I’ll mention this is a Pro-Am spread about three courses throughout the week with the 156-player field chopped down to the top 65 and ties after everyone plays each of the three courses. Those players who make the cut will meet at the Stadium Course for the final round on Sunday.

Daniel Berger will make his return to the PGA Tour after a long layoff due to injury. While we might not expect much, it sure is nice to see one of the more talented players on tour return to the course.

2024 American Express Betting Preview

• Course: Stadium Course at PGA West (SC)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,187 yards
• Greens: Poa overseed

• Course: Nicklaus Tournament Course at PGA West (TC)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,147 yards
• Greens: Poa overseed

• Course: La Quinta CC (LQ)
• Par: 72
• Yardage: 7,060 yards
• Greens: Poa Trivialis

All three courses will present a litany of birdie opportunities for professionals in the field. Since this is a Pro-Am, pin positions will be very accessible, greens will be far slower, and there will be hardly any rough to speak of. All three courses feature plenty of water and challenging bunkers as a defense. The toughest test of the three courses — the Stadium course — will be played twice by all players who make the Sunday cut.

Due to the Pete Dye layout and common features among the three courses, we are looking for players to create and cash in on as many opportunities as possible. As always, we will dial into SG: Approach over the last 36 rounds or so as well as Opportunities Gained.

Water is prevalent at the Stadium Course with some of the more challenging greenside bunkers on tour. Since players will play this course twice (assuming they are in contention), we also want to consider fairways. While bombers can win here, see Jon Rahm, Hudson Swafford, etc. Keeping the ball in play is all that is needed to have opportunities at these less challenging greens.

We will only have shotlink at the Stadium Course for one of the players’ first three rounds and the final Sunday round. Most of the feature players will play the Stadium Course on Saturday due to television coverage.

With all three courses offering four Par 5s, we will want to consider SG: Par 5 or Eagles (or both). Reviewing the scores of the previous winners shows that players will need to go low to remain in contention on Sunday. With field strength increasing each year, we should only assume to see an even lower score.

With a plurality of Par 4s in the 350-400 range, we will make sure to consider that in our modeling ahead of the tournament. Furthermore, we will want to consider good drives or fairways gained, SG: Putting, and the aforementioned SG: Approach statistic. I am not as concerned about the around-the-green play when trying to find outrights in a birdie fest.

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Golfers To Watch This Week

Unless mentioned otherwise, all strokes gained statistics will be referenced over the player’s previous 36 rounds on the PGA Tour.

Sungjae Im +2000

Sungjae Im put together a strong performance in the fall. When the new season commenced at the Sentry in Hawaii, Im continued that form with a 5th-place finish. Sungjae has five straight T15 finishes at this event and comes in at a very nice price given the class at the top of our odds board.

I often find it hard to mention Scottie Scheffler as a golfer to watch because we should always be on the lookout for the best player on tour. Admitting that his excellence goes without saying, I find the most value early in the week on Im at his price on DraftKings. He will be a strong consideration for the first bet on my card and certainly for DraftKings and one-and-done selections.

J.T. Poston +3000

Poston tied Sungjae Im for fifth place at the Sentry and completed his Hawaiin swing with a sixth-place finish at the Sony Open. If not for a rough Saturday, Poston might have put a halt to the Grayson Murray comeback story.

Oddly, Poston has been performing well despite struggles in the approach department — a typical strong facet of his game. At 30-1, we are getting a guy in great form that is cut out perfectly for a Pro-Am event. Keep the ball in play, dial it in with the wedges, and bury plenty of putts.

Wyndham Clark +4000

Wyndham Clark checks in further down the board with a bit of upside at his price. A mediocre finish at the Sentry did not inspire us very much, but the reigning U.S. Open Champion has a particularly fun skill set for an event set up for a Pro-Am.

Clark might not be the best approach player on tour, but he gains off the tee in bunches and is rock solid around the greens. He is four of five in his starts at American Express but must be considered a far different player presently than he was a few years back.

He has the game to put together a few big wins this year. I don’t see a reason to at least consider him at this price.

Taylor Montgomery +5000

I could not believe my eyes, but Taylor Montgomery gained strokes across all major categories last week at the Sony Open. Normally known for a stellar short game and incredible putting, Montgomery’s ball-striking left me dazzled by the potential of a first-time winner. It’s coming.

Well, this tournament makes sense. The setup is easy, and he finished fifth last year. If Montgomery can strike the ball well enough, we know he can get white hot with the putter. He could be the one cashing in on all of his opportunities throughout three rounds.

After last week, I don’t want to be late for the party. He is on the shortlist for outright plays this week.