The Bottom, Not the Top, Shows the Strength of the Premier League
There’s plenty to be excited about as the Premier League reaches the business end of the season. A title race between Arsenal and Manchester City, with the possibility of Manchester United making it a three-way tussle. An intriguing battle for the 4 Champions League spot involving Newcastle and Spurs, as well as Brighton, Fulham, and Liverpool. At the bottom of the table, however, the excitement tends to turn to nervousness. And, there’s a firm chance that some ‘big’ clubs like Everton, West Ham, and Leicester could be fighting for their lives at the end of the season.
While it’s not great for those clubs, it is indicative of a growing consensus that the Premier League is stronger than it has ever been. In short, these are very good teams mired in a relegation battle, and the fact that they are there speaks volumes about the quality in the division. Of course, none of this should come as a surprise. The disparity in transfer spending between the Premier League and the rest of Europe has been growing. In the latest January Transfer Window, Premier League clubs spent over £800 million on players. La Liga clubs, by comparison, spent just £25 million. Only in France’s Ligue 1 did clubs spend more than £100 million.
Saints tentatively backed for the drop
Right now, bookmakers offering odds on Premier League relegation cite Southampton and Bournemouth as the two most likely candidates to go down. While there is some sense in that, neither should be written off. Indeed, just last weekend, Southampton beat Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. Only 13 points separate Southampton, the bottom club, and Chelsea in 10. Realistically speaking, there are nine clubs who are still in danger: Aston Villa, Crystal Palace, Nottingham Forest, Leicester City, West Ham, Leeds, Everton, Bournemouth, and Southampton.
Perhaps the point we are making is that all of those clubs have budgets that would dwarf an average La Liga, Ligue 1 or Serie A club. Nottingham Forest, for example, had a net spend of around £180 million on transfers this season, including nine players costing over £10 million. Lens, a club with a fair chance of qualifying for the Champions League and an outside chance of the title, made a transfer profit of £13 million. They have never spent over £10 million on a player.
A Super League in all but name
Of course, we must talk about the so-called Premier League premium. European clubs know that the English top flight is awash with cash, so there is a perception that Premier League clubs overpay. There is probably some truth in that, but we know that money counts overall, even if it is sometimes misspent. In a recent article, the Financial Times claimed that the Premier League already represented a pseudo European Super League, given the financial might now wielded by the clubs. Moreover, we might also point to the trickle-down effect: Would an EFL Championship team like Burnley be able to survive in Serie A or Ligue 1? You might argue that the answer is yes.
As for this season, it’s too soon to tell who will go down. As mentioned, it’s likely that we are going to see three from nine clubs. The only thing we know for certain is that there are going to be some very good teams playing in the EFL Championship next season.
