The degrees of separation of Kentucky Derby 149
It’s time for the annual Degrees of Separation column, where we separate the contenders from the pretenders for this year’s Kentucky Derby.
It's a light look at the horses that have qualified for a gate on the first Saturday in May, to help segregate the horses I'm high on versus the tosses come Derby day. Using my annual Derby spreadsheet as a guide, we review the 20 horses currently entered in Kentucky Derby 149.
Since 2010, my record for Derby top selections is 13-2-1-3. The two winning selections were Super Saver (2010) and Nyquist (2016) and the second-place finisher was Tiz the Law (2020). The three third-place finishers were Mucho Macho Man, Revolutionary and Dortmund. I missed the board with Improbable (4th), Irish War Cry (10th), Daddy Nose Best (10th), Intense Holiday (12th), Messier (15th), Rock Your World (17th) and Mendelssohn (dead last).
Before we jump into this year’s field, let's take a moment to review some of my selected quotes from past Degrees of Separation columns.
2010, Super Saver: "Really warming up to this one. Pletcher's best chance to wear the roses. Sports Monarchos' sire, his dam sire is A.P. Indy, so he has the pedigree and the King of Churchill in the irons. Dangerous." (Chicken dinner).
2012, I'll Have Another: "I dig this horse. His daddy, Flower Alley, had a troubled trip in the 2005 Derby and is a Travers winner and BC Classic runner-up. Could be my top pick - we'll see how he draws on Wednesday." (Drew Post No. 19, scared me off of him … second guessed myself).
2013, Palace Malice: “Late charger who seems to be a Belmont horse to me. I like him very much, and will keep an eye on his draw, his daddy Curlin won the Preakness and was nosed out of the Belmont.” (Won the Belmont).
2015, American Pharoah: “The likely favorite doesn’t make the top division? Am I crazy? Being able to achieve the 10-furlongs with potential traffic issues he hasn’t yet encountered in the trials. Those questions are enough to have me on the fence.” (Triple Crown winner; the Derby was his toughest race, though).
2016, Exaggerator: “Another somewhat sentimental favorite in this corner who loves any Curlin progeny. Jockey has won the race before, has the running style of a Derby winner. Not sure we’ve seen his best.” (Won the Preakness two weeks later).
2018, Justify: “The numbers scream that he’s the winner. History begs to differ. You can’t ignore the talent. Could be something special.” (Triple Crown special!)
2019, Country House: “Nice horse, just not fast enough.” (Only horse to win coming out of the Gremlin division, granted it was via disqualification).
2021, Mandaloun: “He’s going to be a nice price and if you can draw a line through his Arkansas Derby, he fits.” (Eventually declared winner via disqualification of Medina Spirit).
2022, Rich Strike: No comment as the 80-1 winner wasn’t even in the race yet!
Let’s get down to business and reveal our 2023 Degrees of Separation:
The AMC Gremlin Division
My mother drove an American Motors Corporation (AMC) Gremlin back in the late '70s and it was a thing of beauty. Bright red, sleek gold stripes, the works. So what was the issue? It just wasn't fast. Pretty sure it was one of the worst cars ever built. This division name will never change. These are the horses that represent this division, and qualify as my throw-outs:
Continuar: Japanese qualifier is an easy toss. No horse from Japan or who ran in the UAE Derby has ever hit the board in Louisville.
Disarm: Wheeling back from the Lexington in three weeks, may be out of ammo.
Raise Cain: Likely not able and just happy to be here.
Hit Show: Will be better suited at shorter distances and comes out of the Wood which hasn’t exactly wowed anyone in recent years.
Jace’s Road: You won’t see a second Cox horse in this division very often, just think he doesn’t have the speed.
Lord Miles: He would be better off attending the King’s coronation on the First Saturday in May.
The Party Crasher Division
This division represents the spot where the horse won’t win, but he’ll cause havoc on your exotic betting by crashing the exacta, trifecta and superfecta at a price. Think Golden Soul, Lookin at Lee, Mr. Big News and Commanding Curve showing up uninvited to the party.
Sun Thunder: McPeek has a way of upsetting the apple cart in big races.
Verifying: Son of a Triple Crown winner who should be forwardly placed and could sneak into the triple or super.
Rocket Can: He’s going to be a nice price and is one of my live long shots.
The George Costanza Human Fund Division
These will be the horses that will be taking in a lot of action at the windows, boatloads of hype and will disappoint.
Derma Sotogake (JPN): The Japanese horse has had a lot of buzz surrounding him since his arrival. Will be overbet and underwhelming.
Two Phil’s: Not a real popular name, but every Phil in America will be plodding down a deuce on the colt with the inadvertent apostrophe.
The Afleet Alex Division
Horses that won't win the Derby, but will have to be respected and could hit the board. Horses qualifying here have the potential to become a Classic winner down the road in either the Preakness Stakes or the Belmont Stakes.
Tapit Trice: Potential Belmont winner? Pletcher loves the Belmont and Tapit has sired a number of recent winners in the final classic. The gray horse has looked good in the morning.
Practical Move: What? He’s not in the top flight? I think he’ll enjoy the crab cakes over the juleps. He’s your Preakness horse at the slightly shorter distance.
The On-The-Fence Division
This division has many names over the course of this column – Larry Holmes and Brett Favre come to mind. The horses landing in this division are those I just can't make up my mind up on as we approach the Run for the Roses. Going back and forth in the indecision division.
Mage: He’s lightly raced, which gives me pause, but his late surge in the Florida Derby was impressive and he has looked the part in the morning.
Kingsbarns: If there’s a soft pace and he’s out front, he could wire this thing, but not likely he’ll get away with it in a 20-horse field. The unbeaten son of Uncle Mo will take some big dough with a Hall of Famer conditioning him.
Reincarnate: Another likely to be forwardly placed and was another of my live longshots.
Confidence Game: The colt that has impressed me the most during the morning works show, but history says the six-week layoff is too long.
Muhammad Ali Division
Giving tribute to the Louisville native, the Ali Division includes the horses I think have the best chance at wearing the roses on Saturday. Last year, I had second- and third-place finishers Epicenter and Zandon in this group.
Forte: Point leader, Juvenile champion and likely favorite has looked dynamite on track in Louisville. If he gets past this one, he’ll win the Preakness, but will face a tough task in the Belmont.
Angel of Empire: Arkansas Derby winner has the look of a champion, should be at decent odds, and could get Cox his first Derby win.
Skinner: If it comes up sloppy, I’m going all-in on the last horse into the field. He was edged out of the Santa Anita Derby and the extra distance should be the answer.
That's a wrap on this year's 2023 degrees of separation. It’s my favorite way to flesh out the field, as you can't bet them all. The News will be onsite in Louisville starting on Wednesday, look for coverage here through Saturday’s big race.
Gene Kershner, a Buffalo-based turf writer, is a member of the National Turf Writers and Broadcasters Association and tweets @EquiSpace.
