'The ground is not going to be ideal for City Of Troy'
The appeal of the Dewhurst persists even though it has a strong tendency to be little more than a coronation these days. Some people love to see a champion against any backdrop. That is hardly unique to racing.
There is another element which holds the interest of those who like competition and betting puzzles. Because these are two-year-olds, we do not always know in advance when we are crowning a champion.
Remember the winning SP returned by St Mark's Basilica in 2020? He is the best horse Aidan O'Brien has ever sent to the race and he could be backed at 10-1. Two years before was something of a coronation for Too Darn Hot. But who spotted at the time that he was beating the Commonwealth Cup and Derby winners into second and third?
A glance at the market tells us we are looking at another victory parade this year. Normally, the prohibitive favourite has evidence to present from more recently than mid-July. Since Frankel, there have been nine Dewhurst favourites priced even-money or shorter. The number of days off they had leading into the race had been 27, 27, 28, 74, 27, 27, 50, 28, 21.
You might notice an outlier in that list. The 74-day absent favourite was Expert Eye, who had last run in the Vintage Stakes at Goodwood. He was a top-class horse, but he ran terribly in the Dewhurst.
This is absolutely not to say that any sort of trend is against City Of Troy in this year's Dewhurst. Form is more important than any trend and his form is the best in the race. The message is that there has been an awful lot of racing since he won the Superlative Stakes on his most recent run 91 days ago. At the time, Henry Longfellow and Vandeek had not seen the track. Rosallion was a mere maiden winner.
Likely second-favourite Iberian has had time for a revival in the meantime. He won a maiden in June, then dented his monster reputation a little when second to Haatem at Goodwood. He buffed that out with success in the Champagne Stakes at Doncaster.
He leads a group of challengers who bring form from most of the major Dewhurst trials. The exception is the National Stakes at the Curragh. To illustrate how big a miss that is, I would note that it is run 27 days before the Dewhurst and refer you back a few paragraphs. This year's National Stakes winner, City Of Troy's stablemate Henry Longfellow, is the missing piece.
Alyanaabi won the Tattersalls Stakes, Indian Run the Acomb, Array the Mill Reef and Henry Adams represents the Jean-Luc Lagardere, although he was a well-held fourth behind Rosallion. The problem they all have is that their form comes from a background of mediocrity.
This year's two-year-old division has lacked depth, as the ratings would tell you. All the lesser Group race trials mentioned above produced Racing Post Ratings on the winner that were well below the ten-year average.
Conversely, City Of Troy's winning performance in the Superlative was the best in the race since RPRs started in the late-1980s. While he may be an atypical Dewhurst favourite, if ever there was room for a champion juvenile to post an unassailable performance in July it would be this year.
Race analysis by Keith Melrose
'We need to get that third run of the season into him'
All eyes will naturally be drawn to City Of Troy when he bids to confirm the enormous promise of his first two starts ahead of next year's Classics.
The son of Justify is the ante-post favourite for the Qipco 2,000 Guineas after landing the Group 2 Superlative Stakes by six and a half lengths.
After beating Haatem at Newmarket, City Of Troy was set to line up in the Group 1 National Stakes but missed out due to unsuitable ground.
"The ground is not going to be ideal for City Of Troy," said trainer Aidan O'Brien. "He moves beautifully and would prefer real good ground, but we're running out of options and we need to get that third run of the season into him.
"Everything has gone well since he was supposed to run at the Curragh. He's the same weight now as he was going to the Curragh so he has obviously matured and got stronger. We're very happy with him and he's doing everything nicely and easily."
O'Brien will also be represented by Group 3 winner Henry Adams, who finished fourth behind Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.
"Henry Adams ran a lovely race in France, as it had been a long time since he ran," said O'Brien. "He'll stay further so the trip won't be a problem and he handles ease in the ground too."
What they say
Owen Burrows, trainer of Alyanaabi
We've been pleased with him since he won the Tattersalls Stakes over course and distance. We would have liked to have seen less rain but his action suggests he may get through more testing ground.
Thady Gosden, joint-trainer of Eben Shaddad
It's a deep race but he goes there with a chance. The ground would be a concern but hopefully it dries out.
Richard Hannon, trainer of Haatem
I thought he ran better in the Mill Reef than the form figure suggests and the form of the race could be pretty strong given the winner, Array, has been supplemented for this.
Charlie Hills, trainer of Iberian
We've been delighted with his work – he's very professional. We know he can handle soft ground and the form of his Champagne Stakes win has worked out well with the third, Rosallion, winning the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere and the fourth, Mountain Bear, winning a Listed race.
Eve Johnson Houghton, trainer of Indian Run
Soft ground is an unknown but there's no reason he wouldn't act on it. It is a typically hot race but he deserves to be there.
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