City Of Troy, Shuwari and Arabian Crown in the spotlight
Praying rain's not a pain for City Of Troy
It’s a hugely exciting weekend with several top juveniles on display at Newmarket but none get the pulse racing quite like City Of Troy ahead of the Dewhurst Stakes. Let’s just hope he gets the go ahead to run.
The son of Justify has been so impressive in two starts he’s going to go off a short odds-on favourite if given the green light and that’s not unusual in this race, with seven horses going off odds-on in the Dewhurst post-Frankel.
Dawn Approach, War Command, Air Force Blue, Churchill, Pinatubo and Native Trail all justified their short prices, with only Expert Eye letting the side down when coming home lame in 2017.
But for all that collective achieved notable success in the game, there is a feeling City Of Troy could be the best of the lot after a scintillating Superlative Stakes win at Newmarket in July that left racing fans wanting more (see free video replay, below).
More is something we haven’t had, as yet, with unsuitable ground ruling him out of the Goffs Vincent O’Brien National Stakes at the Curragh during the Irish Champions Festival, meaning he would head into the Dewhurst on the back of 91 days off the track, providing he’s not scuppered by conditions once again.
Such an absence is unusual for a Ballydoyle juvenile at this time of year, as they are generally campaigned aggressively, but O’Brien does have previous when it comes to winning top two-year-old races in the autumn with horses coming off significant breaks.
Exhibit A is Camelot, who won the Futurity Trophy at Doncaster on the back of 100 days off in 2011, and Exhibit B is Tenebrism, who stormed to an impressive success in the Cheveley Park following a 181-day break in 2021.
Ballydoyle have a rich history of winning the Dewhurst with sons of American-based stallions, too, with War Command, Air Force Blue and U S Navy Flag all being by War Front, and the new Justify connection could pay handsome dividends this weekend.
As alluded to, the one concern is the blasted weather, with forecast rain on Wednesday and Friday expected to bring north of 20 millimetres in total – although the track could take it well starting from a base of Good to Firm.
Nonetheless, there have been nibbles in the antepost betting for stablemate Henry Longfellow, who stepped into the breach so successfully in the aforementioned National Stakes, and if the ground does turn on the softer side he could well be asked to play the role of super sub once again.
Fingers crossed this is not the case. City Of Troy remains the 5/2 favourite for the 2000 Guineas with good reason despite a whole host of candidates throwing their hat into the ring in recent weeks, and his next racecourse appearance is eagerly anticipated.
O’Brien won the Fillies’ Mile with City Of Troy’s dam, Together Forever, on soft ground, so perhaps that will be noted in discussions if the ground does turn, especially with Diego Velazquez seemingly fitting into the Kameko Futurity Trophy Stakes slot so perfectly at Doncaster on October 28.
Likewise, the Dewhurst looks the perfect final port of call for City Of Troy at two. A look at the Rowley Mile ahead of his first big test in the 2000 Guineas at three could be invaluable. Let’s hope his trainer thinks so as well, as in a very strong heat he’s the most exciting Dewhurst horse since Frankel.
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Shuwari should thrive in Fillies' Mile
The bet365 Fillies Mile on Friday doesn’t look to house a potential superstar like City Of Troy, but I do think the market has found the right and correct favourite in Ollie Sangster’s Shuwari.
She was given a hell of a lot to do by Oisin Murphy in the Rockfel, doing well to finish as close as she did to Carla’s Way at the line, finishing strongly for a never-nearer two-and-a-quarter length second.
Having previously beaten subsequent Moyglare winner Fallen Angel in a Listed race at Sandown, she has the form in the book, and the step up to a mile only looks in her favour judging by her pedigree.
A half-sister to two 10-furlong winners and even Annie Power through her dam, you would think a greater test of stamina will be right up her street and I’m a big fan of New Bay progeny.
Sons and daughters of New Bay have a terrific record on the Rowley Mile in the autumn, with the updated figures now reading eight wins from 30 at 26.67% following Tregony’s win at the end of September.
Saffron Beach helps those numbers of course, thanks to her three wins on the Rowley Mile, but in the same silks it’s Shuwari who can further uphold that excellent record for New Bay’s offspring on Friday.
Godolphin turn to Autumn for hope
Talking of records, Godolphin go for an incredible eighth successive victory in the Group 3 Emirates Autumn Stakes on Saturday and the way the season has gone for Charlie Appleby he’ll be desperate to keep the sequence going.
Coroebus was a superb winner of this race for him two years ago before going onto win the Guineas, and it looks like Arabian Crown will get the call-up for this year’s Autumn Stakes with stablemate Ancient Wisdom going for the Zetland.
Arabian Crown was an impressive winner of the Stonehenge Stakes at Salisbury last time, seeing out the mile well, and Appleby has been patient with him by skipping the Royal Lodge in favour of coming here fresh.
Appleby’s annus horribilis continued in the Royal Lodge, though, with 4/1 shot Aablan trailing home in eighth, so all eyes now turn to Arabian Crown and the familiar glow of the Autumn Stakes to salvage some hope for next year.
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