The result Wales actually need against Australia as fatal scenario emerges

Wales' Rugby World Cup pool got blown wide open over the weekend after Fiji beat Australia for the first time in 69 years to stay alive in the competition.

Fiji's brilliance means every single side in the pool can mathematically qualify for the last eight but most people agree in reality it is between Australia, Wales, and the Pacific Islanders. While the end result is unclear, one thing which is certain is Welsh fans will be left on the edge of their seats until the final whistle blows in Nantes against Georgia on October 7.

Rugby correspondent Steffan Thomas takes a look at all the permutations for Wales.

Current standings and permutations

Currently, Wales top Pool C with 10 points, Fiji are second with six points, Australia third with six points, while both Georgia and Portugal are pointless. The top two sides progress to the quarter-finals. Should two teams be level on points then whoever won the head-to-head between those sides in the Pool will finisher higher.

However, should three sides finish level on the same points, the team with the best points difference will progress. In the highly unlikely event all three sides have the same points difference then it'll be decided by the following:

• The team with the best difference between tries scored and tries conceded
• The team with the highest amount of points scored
• The team with the highest amount of tries scored

Rugby World Cup Pool C table as it stands

Wales are in full control of their own destiny

Amid all the nervous tension, here is a reassuring thought; Wales are in control of their own destiny. For now.

Wales may not have been perfect, and there is plenty to work on, but they are the only unbeaten side in the pool, with maximum points at that. The task is simple then, if Wales win their remaining two Pool C fixtures against Australia and Georgia, respectively, they qualify for the quarter-finals regardless of other results.

Even a draw against Australia would likely be good enough for Wales provided they overcome Georgia in their final Pool C clash, so the target should be claiming at least two match points to keep Wales' destiny in their own hands.

In simple terms, the maximum number of points Australia and Fiji can now finish on is 16 if they get two bonus point wins in their final two matches. So, seven points from Wales' final two games will be enough to guarantee they top the group on 17 points. Six points could be enough, depending what bonus points the Wallabies and Fijians pick up and what points difference looks like.

A reminder, the points on offer in every group game of this World Cup are:

• Four points for a win
• Two points for a draw
• One bonus point if a team scores at least four tries
• One bonus point if a team lose by no more than seven points

What happens if Wales lose to Australia? The disaster scenario explained

It very much depends on the manner of the defeat.

If Wales lose but pick up two bonus points for scoring four tries or more and losing by seven points or less, they will qualify for the knockouts top of the group as long as they beat Georgia with a bonus point in their last match.

Likewise, if Wales pick up one losing bonus point and Australia don't get one, the outcome will be the same with a bonus point win over Georgia enough.

Basically, if the difference in match points gained on Sunday is three, Wales have control.

However, if Australia beat Wales with a bonus point to claim a maximum five points and Warren Gatland's men come away with nothing then they are up against it. This is the disaster scenario and takes qualification hopes completely out of Wales' hands.

Should this be the case then one would expect the Wallabies to also claim five match points against Portugal the following week which would put Eddie Jones' men up to 16 points. Should Fiji also claim maximum points from their remaining fixtures against Georgia and Portugal, respectively, Gatland's side will exit at the pool stage as they could only reach 15 points.

Even if Australia win without a bonus point but Wales fail to get any sort of bonus point then things still look troublesome. This would mean Wales and Australia could only get to 15 points, but Fiji could get 16. Given Australia would have beaten Wales, they will go through if it is between the two of them for second place.

At the very least, Gatland's men need a losing bonus point. They will then need a big bonus point win over Georgia to give themselves the best chance if things come down to points difference.

The Wales v Australia Pool C scenarios in short

Wales win: Wales go through

Draw: Wales go through with any win over Georgia

Australia get four points, Wales get two: Wales go through with any win over Georgia

Australia get five points, Wales get two: Wales go through with bonus point win over Georgia

Australia get four points, Wales get one: Wales go through with bonus point win over Georgia

Australia get five points, Wales get one: Wales need bonus point win over Georgia but may well be relying on points difference

Australia get four points, Wales get none: It's out of Wales' hands

Australia get five points, Wales get none: It's out of Wales' hands

What do Fiji need?

Only a very brave person would bet on Fiji slipping up against Georgia or Portugal right now. The Pacific Islanders ideally need to get to 16 points which would require two bonus-point victories.

Should Fiji keep their side of the bargain then they'll finish ahead of Wales if Gatland's men fail to get any points against Australia. If they are level on points with Australia then they'll finish above them owing to the fact they won their head-to-head, unless Wales also finish on the same number which would result in Pool C being decided by points difference.

The easiest solution for Fiji is beating Georgia and Portugal with a bonus point which should be achievable.

Georgia still have a big part to play

For all the hoo-ha after Fiji's stunning victory over Australia, let's not forget Georgia are still in contention to qualify, although only the most eternal of optimists would bet on the Lelos getting out of the pool. The Eastern Europeans got stage fright against the Wallabies in Paris last weekend, but even though a 35-15 scoreline in Australia's favour looks like a hammering, it was anything but.

Georgia have a very strong pack, and set-piece, while their attacking game is better than it's given credit for. Welsh fans won't need any reminding of how strong the Georgians can be after they stunned a poor Wales side to win at the Principality Stadium last November.

Even if Georgia don't get out of this pool, which is highly likely, they can still have a big say in who progresses. Whether it's Australia, Fiji, or Wales who get knocked out could very well come down to who fails to secure a winning bonus point against Georgia.

Fiji are riding the crest of a wave at the moment but Simon Raiwalui will be keeping the feet of his players planted firmly on the ground, and reminding them of their embarrassing defeat to Uruguay in Japan four years ago.