Third Ashes Test preview: England vs Australia prediction, stars to watch and suggested bets

The Ashes heads to Headingley in Leeds, where Australia can complete a series win and England will attempt to keep the five-match contest alive against the backdrop of what should be a hostile crowd.

2023-07-04Third Ashes Test preview: England vs Australia prediction, stars to watch and suggested bets

Who, when, where

Talking points

Defeats in Birmingham and London have left England with a must-win situation this week. Despite the losses, the hosts have spoken a big game throughout and, once again, it's time to see if the 'Bazball' approach can walk the talk.

The home side will be without batsman Ollie Pope, who has been ruled out of the rest of the series with a shoulder injury. The aggressive Harry Brook will reportedly move up to third in the batting order - and all-rounder Moeen Ali is set to return to the XI.

It'll be interesting to see if Ali's return leaves reserve batsman Dan Lawrence out of the team - or perhaps space is made for both. Seamers James Anderson and Josh Tongue will reportedly be rested, meaning a likely return for all-rounder Chris Woakes.

And then there's the probable selection of fast bowler Mark Wood on a pitch that, according to batsman Joe Root, has plenty of live grass on it. Maybe outright pace is what England have been missing this series. Time and conditions will tell.

Australia are still being asked to answer for the controversial run-out of batsman Jonny Bairstow in the second Test. Pundits and critics and plenty have pondered the merit and validity of wicketkeeper Alex Carey's decision. The Aussies, characteristically, won't likely let this hang over their heads going into the third Test.

Spinner Nathan Lyon has been ruled out of the rest of the series as well. His absence is probably more detrimental to Australia than Pope's is to England. That said, it'll be intriguing to see if England take the attack to back-up spinner Todd Murphy, if he even plays. Part-time slow bowler delivered some threatening spells at Lord's.

Head-to-head

Australia have won four of their last five Test meetings with England. The one they didn't win was a draw. That makes a lengthy unbeaten stretch, indeed.

Stars to watch

Brook might have been dropped from the XI had Pope not exited due to injury. Now, the attacking right-hander will likely be pushed up the order and perhaps asked to deploy a bit more measure. Brook is certainly entertaining to watch, but he's also the personification of the negative elements of 'Bazball'.

While England will potentially rest Anderson, Australia will probably keep going with left-armer Mitchell Starc. He generated plenty of swing at Lord's. Proper pace and lateral movement could be coupled with seaming conditions at Leeds. Starc, again, could be a handful for England's top- through middle-order to manage.

Prediction

England need to temper their approach. 'Bazball' isn't working. They can't be stubborn in maintaining this approach. If the hosts find a solid middle ground, which only has to be a working theory for the rest of the series rather than a concrete approach for the foreseeable future, they might be able to pull a win back here. But probably not against a confident, spurred Australian unit.