Thunder vs. Pelicans Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will New Orleans Earn Rematch With Minnesota?

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12 April 2023

Thunder vs. Pelicans Predictions, Picks & Odds: Will New Orleans Earn Rematch With Minnesota?

With a trip to Minneapolis on the line, the New Orleans Pelicans and Oklahoma City Thunder will face off in Wednesday’s play-in tournament matchup. Read on for our Thunder vs. Pelicans prediction based on the best NBA odds.

The New Orleans Pelicans are only in this 9-10 matchup in the play-in tournament because they faltered down the stretch against the Minnesota Timberwolves in the regular-season finale. To get a rematch, New Orleans (42-40) will need to take care of business against the Oklahoma City Thunder (40-42) at home.

In the regular-season series, New Orleans won three of its four games against Oklahoma City. The Pelicans went 1-1 at home, including a 110-96 loss to the Thunder during their last meeting on March 11.

Here is our best Thunder vs. Pelicans prediction (odds via BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Thunder vs. Pelicans prediction

Jonas Valanciunas Under 27.5 points + rebounds + assists (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐

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Conventional wisdom would say that 6-foot-11 Jonas Valanciunas should have his way against a smaller Oklahoma City frontcourt. But that wasn’t really the case in four regular-season meetings between the Pelicans and the Thunder.

Valanciunas averaged 11.3 points per game to go along with 7.3 rebounds and 1 assist per contest. For comparison, he averaged 14.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 1.8 assists per game during the 2022-23 campaign for New Orleans.

A lot of that is because Valanciunas struggled to stay on the floor, as he averaged 22.2 minutes per game against the Thunder compared to his season average of 24.9 minutes. This young Thunder team might simply be a bad matchup for the 10-year veteran center.

NumberFire projects a line of 14.5 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 2.2 assists for Valanciunas in this play-in matchup, suggesting that his issues might remain a theme. That projection gives us a 3% edge by placing this bet at BetMGM.

In a game where Brandon Ingram could put on a show for the Pelicans (despite what Jon Metler thinks in his NBA best bets), expect Valanciunas to take a backseat in this play-in game. Don't worry, his turn could come as early as Friday in a potential battle with Timberwolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns to decide who is going to the Western Conference Playoffs.

Thunder vs. Pelicans best odds

BetMGM (-115)

The best part about this pick is that we seem to be getting a great deal by placing this bet at BetMGM. DraftKings Sportsbook has this Under juiced to -140, while PointsBet offers the same vig on a combo prop of 26.5.

Caesars is the only shop with a comparable offering, but BetMGM has the best deal on this Under. That appears to be due to the public backing the Over on this particular prop. Still, we would play this Under at -120 or better.

Thunder vs. Pelicans odds

Thunder vs. Pelicans odds analysis

The Pelicans have moved to 5.5-point favorites after the opening line started at 6 earlier in the week. The total has dropped from 231 to 227 at our best NBA betting sites, likely due to both of Tuesday’s play-in tournament games finishing Under the point total.

During the regular season, Oklahoma City exceeded expectations by going 45-34-3 against the spread and 46-35-1 to the Over. New Orleans finished with a 39-42-1 ATS clip and a 44-38 record to the Under.