Thunder vs Timberwolves NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

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13 April 2023

Thunder vs Timberwolves NBA Odds, Picks and Predictions Tonight

After successfully eliminating the Pelicans, Oklahoma City will now travel to Minnesota in a battle for the final playoff spot in the West. Find out why we're fading Josh Giddey's scoring output by reading our Thunder vs. Timberwolves betting picks.

The Oklahoma City Thunder have a taste for upsets heading into the final NBA Play-In Tournament matchup in the West, visiting the Minnesota Timberwolves as road underdogs on Friday night.

Oklahoma City stunned New Orleans as a 5-point road pup on Wednesday, erupting for 66 second-half points to win 123-118 and setting up this showdown with Minnesota for the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference playoffs.

The Timberwolves are coming off a missed opportunity in their play-in opener, blowing a 15-point advantage to lose 108-106 in an ugly overtime affair with the Lakers on Tuesday. Minnesota covered as an 8.5-point underdog in that outing and brings a four-game winning streak against the spread into Friday’s homestand.

I dissect the point spread and Over/Under total for this fight for the eighth seed and give my best NBA picks and predictions for Thunder vs. Timberwolves on April 14.

Thunder vs Timberwolves best odds

Thunder vs Timberwolves picks and predictions

The Thunder’s second-half surge against New Orleans in the No. 9-versus-No. 10 play-in game sends them to Minnesota for this matchup for the No. 8 seed. A big part of that push in the final 24 minutes came courtesy of the efforts of guard Josh Giddey.

Giddey scored 19 of his total 31 points in the second half Wednesday, matching his biggest scoring output of the year. That has oddsmakers puffing up his points prop for this second play-in game, with Giddey's total listed at 20.5 (Under -109).

This is a significant jump when compared to his recent scoring totals, which bounced between 15.5 and 19.5 points for the final few games of the regular season. Giddey has only gone Over his scoring expectations in half of his last 10 outings, and even with the Aussie’s average spiking to more than 18 points over the final 20 games of the regular season, putting up 21-plus is asking a lot.

Before Wednesday’s 31-point eruption, Giddey had breached that bar only once in his previous seven outings and just twice in his last 17 games. His player projections for this road stop in Minnesota are out there as low as 15.5, while my number is a bit more generous at 18.8.

Since getting healthy with Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards on the court, the Timberwolves finished the regular season with a defensive rating of 110.4 in their last eight games. Books are projecting a step back for OKC’s offense, with the team total sitting at just 111.5 points.

Minnesota put the clamps on a Lakers offense that was surging to close the regular season, despite being down top defenders Rudy Gobert (who will be back Friday) and Jaden McDaniels (out with a broken hand). Los Angeles shot just 41% from the field and coughed the ball over 20 times in Tuesday’s overtime finish.

Giddey averaged 14 points over four games with the T-Wolves this season, scoring a high of 21 points in OKC’s 135-128 shootout win at Minnesota back on December 3. He went 8-for-16 from the field, including 3 of 7 from distance, with that game playing at a high-octane pace rating of 113.5.

Friday’s game total is calling for a slower tempo and far fewer possessions for Giddey and the Thunder.

My best bet: Josh Giddey Under 20.5 points (-109)

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Thunder vs Timberwolves spread analysis

Following Oklahoma City’s win in NOLA on Wednesday, oddsmakers opened with the Thunder as 4.5-point underdogs in Minnesota. That spread climbed to as high as T-Wolves -5 at some shops as of Thursday afternoon, with some coming back to the original opener.

Minnesota did win three of the four head-to-head matchups with OKC this season, with the teams splitting wins against the spread.

However, their most recent encounters came way back in December and the Timberwolves now have Towns back on the court after he missed the majority of the schedule due to injury. Since KAT’s return, Minnesota has won six of its last 10 games overall with a 6-4 ATS mark during that span.

The Timberwolves offense has been hit-and-miss in that stretch, but the team has shown improvements on the defensive end, giving up just 112.6 average points in the last nine games of the regular season and limiting L.A. to only 108 points despite the overtime period in Tuesday’s play-in contest. Gobert is also back in the middle after he was suspended Tuesday for punching a teammate during the season finale.

The Thunder finished the regular season as one of the better overall bets against the spread, owning a 46-34-3 ATS mark (57.5%), including 20-11-3 ATS as road underdogs. The team made good on that trend with an outright win at New Orleans on Wednesday and now rides a three-game ATS streak after an ice-cold 0-7 ATS drought at the end of March.

Oklahoma City wants to push the pace in transition and get to the rim for high-percentage looks, and the Timberwolves give up the eighth-highest points to transition offenses on the season. Minny allowed OKC to average 54 points in the paint over their four matchups this year, which was the same total allowed to the Lakers in the paint on Tuesday.

Minnesota must avoid turnovers against a team like Oklahoma City, which wants to turn and burn off defensive stops. The Timberwolves committed 20 turnovers in the loss to the Lakers and rank out third-worst in average turnovers with 15.4 per game. Those errors have led to foes enjoying 17.7 points off turnovers per contest.

The Thunder, as it would have it, pick up a good chunk of their production from creating pressure and forcing mistakes. Oklahoma City generates the second most points off turnovers in the league (20.6) and forces an NBA-best 16.7 turnovers per game. It also averaged 24.5 points off the T-Wolves’ turnovers in the four meetings between these teams this season.

Thunder vs Timberwolves Over/Under analysis

This Over/Under number hit the board at 227.5 points on Thursday morning and jumped up to 228.5 before coming back down to as low as 227. The two meetings between these teams in December closed with similar totals of 233 and 234 points but saw two very different games play out.

On December 3, the Thunder and Wolves broke out into a track meet with an incredible up-and-down pace (113.5) and saw 263 total points hit the board with both teams shooting better than 50% from the floor. They played each other again later that month, with that 112-110 final finishing below the total as the contest was played at a more moderate pace rating of 103.0.

Friday’s move to the Under is calling for less action on the scoreboard and postseason intensity on the defensive end. Oklahoma City sees a downtick in output as the road team, with its average points plummeting from almost 121 at home to just over 114 points as the visitor. The Thunder are also an NBA-best 26-15 O/U as hosts, but those results slide to 21-21 O/U in foreign gyms.

Minnesota has been a better Under play in home games this year, with a 17-24 O/U count at the Target Center. The T-Wolves will be looking to play a controlled pace and take good shots in an effort to slow down OKC’s transition attack, and turnovers will be the key to this total on Friday night.