Thunder vs. Pelicans, Raptors vs. Bulls predictions, odds: props bets for play-in games

The NBA is back with another play-in tournament doubleheader, so here’s a look at a player prop prediction for each game.

Wednesday’s matchups feature the Nos. 9 and 10 seeds in the Eastern and Western Conference. The Bulls visit Toronto to take on the Raptors, while the Thunder travel to New Orleans to take on the Pelicans.

It’s worth noting that player props are essentially derivatives of the more traditional betting options, such as the point spread and total. Thus, it’s best not to stray too far from your projections of how the game might unfold.

In the No. 7 vs. No. 8 matchups, we saw that both games went under the total. According to our Action Labs database, that result continued a trend of eight straight games going under the total in the play-in tournament.

Information like that could be critical as we get set to make our prop selections.

The plus price was the first thing that caught my attention with this prop. I started to wonder why the number was so low, and after digging into the numbers, it made even more sense.

Toronto does a tremendous job running opposing teams off the 3-point line as TeamRankings has their defense sixth in limiting opponents’ 3-point attempts with 32.6 per game.

This prop offers value because DeRozan averages only 1.9 3-point attempts per game. He averaged the same amount of shots last season, but his shooting percentage (32.4%) is down almost 3 % from the previous campaign.

The last time DeRozan faced the Raptors, he didn’t even attempt a 3-point shot. Overall, he’s 0-2 from long range in the three games against Toronto this season.

At some point, it can get in your head if you don’t see your shot fall. And given how the Raptors close out on the perimeter, I think the under is well worth a look in this spot.

This prop is primarily influenced by the rebounding run that Dort has been on. He’s gone over this number nine of his past 10 games and 11 of his past 13.

However, I also like to see how players match up against their opposition. In four games against the Pelicans this season, Dort collected just 10 rebounds with an average of 2.5 per contest.

I think there’s something to be said about the Pelicans’ playing style that might prevent Dort from being as effective on the glass. For example, New Orleans ranks 10th in its percentage of scoring from 2-pointers (54.3%).

Thus, it’s possible that against the Pelicans, Dort is getting fewer rebounding opportunities from the guard position if he’s on the perimeter while New Orleans dumps the ball into the paint.

Another thing I found interesting was that three of the games against the Pelicans finished with a combined score of 206 or fewer points. Generally, teams have more opportunities to rebound the ball when they have lower-scoring games.

The fact that Dort failed to log even five rebounds in either one of those games could be telling for this play-in matchup.