Timberwolves vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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26 December 2023

Timberwolves vs Thunder Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

The Minnesota Timberwolves are the best road team in the NBA and travel to Oklahoma City to take on the Thunder in what could easily be a thrilling contest between Western Conference powerhouses.

Two teams at the top of the Western Conference battle on Boxing Day when the Minnesota Timberwolves visit the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Minnesota has ripped off 11 wins in its last 13 games, yet it's still a 3.5-point road underdog in the NBA odds.

OKC is coming off the first loss of its five-game homestand, falling to the Lakers on Saturday.

Check below for my free Timberwolves vs Thunder NBA picks for Tuesday, December 26.

Timberwolves vs Thunder odds

Timberwolves vs Thunder predictions

This is the second of four meetings between these teams, with the Minnesota Timberwolves winning at home in November 106-103 — a game won at their preferred pace.

Minnesota is powered by the NBA’s top defensive rating, allowing a league-low 106.6 points per game, while ranking Top-3 in both field-goal and three-point defense.

They’re coming off a 110-98 win over the Sacramento Kings, holding them to 43.5% shooting from the field, including an 8-for-33 mark from downtown, a 24.2% clip.

The Oklahoma City Thunder aren’t defensive slouches themselves, with a defensive rating that sits sixth, while also just behind Minny in field-goal shooting defense at 44.4%.

OKC owns the advantage offensively, as it sits fifth in scoring, one of just six teams dropping better than 120 points per game.

In their last game, the Thunder couldn’t contain the Lakers, dropping a 129-120 decision, losing for the first time in five games at Paycom Center.

Minnesota comes into this one with the NBA's best road record at 10-5, joining only the Denver Nuggets as teams with double-digit wins away from home.

Both sides have some big question marks on the injury front. Wolves big man Karl-Anthony Towns (knee) is questionable, as are OKC’s Jalen Williams (illness) and Josh Giddey (ankle).

Obviously, checking the injury report before your wager will determine your comfort level, but Minnesota has dominated this head-to-head, winning three straight and nine of the last 10.

Minnesota has not staggered against the top teams, running a 15-4 mark against teams with winning records while OKC is barely .500 vs .500 or better teams, at 10-9.

My best bet: Timberwolves moneyline (+136 at DraftKings)

Timberwolves vs Thunder same-game parlay

Timberwolves moneyline

Anthony Edwards Under 27.5 points

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 33.5 points

With the anticipation of a game played at the Timberwolves’ pace — the combined score by these teams has gone Under the 225.5 total set for this game five times in the last six meetings — let’s target the top option for each side.

Anthony Edwards has been on a tear of late, averaging 31.2 points over his last five, but that 27.5 line has been a tough cross for the 22-year-old. In his last 10 against the Thunder, Edwards has scored 28 points or more just once.

Oklahoma City offers a healthy set of defensive perimeter players to throw his way, in the form of Lu Dort, Keyontae Johnson, Kenrich Williams, and Jalen Williams (if he’s a go), who will work to funnel him into Chet Holmgren, waiting at the tin.

For that reason, I’m banking on the Thunder keeping Edwards in check Tuesday night.

We’ll finish this same-game parlay with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who’s currently fourth in the league in scoring at 30.4 points per game.

He’s averaging 31.2 points through nine December games, but crossing his total of 33.5 points set vs. Minnesota? He’s been able to do that just three times.

Is SGA going to make you sweat it? You bet he is: in his last four games against the Timberwolves, he's topped the total once, but scored 33 twice and finished another with 32.

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Timberwolves vs Thunder spread and Over/Under analysis

The Wolves have been listed as long as five-point underdogs, but the spread has moved throughout the day, with most books offering the line at 3.5 to four points.

The Thunder are the best bet against the spread in the NBA, going 18-9-0. Minnesota sports a 16-12-0 ATS record but has dominated this head-to-head, covering in seven of the last 10.

The total has not sunk below 225.5 and has risen at some books a full point.

The Over has not been a good bet in this head-to-head, going just 3-7-0, with six of the last seven games going Under.

On the year, both teams have winning records with the Over, with the Wolves at 15-13-0, and the Thunder at 16-11-0.

Timberwolves vs Thunder betting trend to know

The Thunder have won six of their last seven home games against Western Conference opponents. Find more NBA betting trends for Timberwolves vs. Thunder.

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