Tigers-Red Sox prediction: Picks, odds on Friday, August 11

The Boston Red Sox (60-55) hope the long-awaited return of Chris Sale will help kickstart their playoff push as they welcome the lefty back to the rotation against the Detroit Tigers on Friday night. First pitch from Fenway Park is set for 7:10 p.m. ET. Sale (5-2, 4.58 ERA) will make his first start for Boston in over two months after a shoulder injury, while young lefty Tarik Skubal (2-1, 3.67) goes for the Tigers.

Boston bounced back with two straight wins to close their series against the Royals, but the Red Sox are still just 4-6 in their last 10 amid an ill-timed slump at the plate. Boston now trails the Blue Jays by four games for the third and final AL Wild Card spot, as they play three against Detroit before hitting the road to take on the Nationals next week. The Tigers are in the midst of another rebuilding year, but they’ve won three in a row and are 5-5 in their last 10 games.

The Red Sox enter as -148 favorites on the moneyline at DraftKings Sportsbook, with Detroit at +124. The run total is set at 9.

Tigers-Red Sox picks: Friday, August 11

Injury report

Tigers

Out: RP Will Vest (knee), RP Mason Englert (hip)

Red Sox

Day to day: 3B/DH Justin Turner (heel)
Out: SP Garrett Whitlock (elbow), SP Tanner Houck (facial fracture), RP Joely Rodriguez (hip), SP/RP Corey Kluber (shoulder)

Starting pitchers

Tarik Skubal vs. Chris Sale

Skubal missed the first three months while recovering from elbow surgery, but the lefty has built on last year’s breakout since coming back in early July. He’s had two rough starts — seven runs in four innings against the Royals, four runs in 4.2 innings against the Marlins — but hasn’t given up a single earned run in the other 18.1 innings he’s thrown so far. His four-seam fastball is a real weapon when he locates it at the top of the strike zone, setting up both a slider and changeup that work well as putaway pitches.

Sale was up and down early this season, but the former Cy Young winner looked to finally be rounding into form right as he went down with a fracture in his shoulder blade. He pitched to a 2.42 ERA across four starts in May and had allowed only one run in 3.2 innings against the Reds before being pulled. He may not be the pitcher he was at his peak with Chicago, but he still has more than enough in the tank to be effective — and his slider remains almost unhittable when it’s on.

Over/Under pick

The Red Sox have been dismal at the plate of late, especially against lefties: Their team wRC+ and strikeout rate against southpaws are both second-worst in the Majors since the start of August. Skubal may not be a household name yet, but he’s a very good pitcher with legit swing-and-miss stuff, and I think he’ll manage to keep Boston at bay tonight. That would require Detroit to do most of the heavy lifting to hit this total, and while Sale figures to be at least a little rusty in his return, the Tigers simply don’t have enough firepower to rely on consistently.

Pick: Under 9

Moneyline pick

Call me crazy, but I’m backing Detroit here. I have more faith in Skubal pitching well than I do Sale, who hasn’t pitched in the Majors in two months and will likely only be able to go 60-70 pitches tonight. Given Boston’s struggles at the plate of late, I’ll take the Tigers with some juice to score just enough to snag a win.