Tigers vs. Royals: Odds, picks and predictions 7/20/23

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20 July 2023

Tigers vs. Royals: Odds, picks and predictions 7/20/23

The Detroit Tigers have the opportunity to win their second straight series since returning from last week’s All-Star break. If Detroit can shove aside the Royals in Kansas City on Thursday afternoon, they will head back to Michigan within 5 ½ games of the Twins.

How many baseball fans thought Detroit could be on pace to lose nearly 90 games and still be in a race for a postseason spot in mid-July? We know there were few of you.

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Who: Detroit Tigers vs. Kansas City Royals
When: Thursday, July 19
Time: 2:10 p.m. ET
Where: Kauffman Stadium (Kansas City, MO)

As of early Thursday, sportsbooks did not list odds on the Tigers/Royals game. That’s likely due to the late announcement of Zack Greinke as the KC starting pitcher.

Michael Lorenzen (4-6, 3.75 ERA, 73 K in 93.2 IP) vs TBD

In his most recent start last weekend in Seattle, Lorenzen was on-point. He pitched into the seventh inning and allowed only two hits, and no runs. There was some concern over his lack of command, which led to five walks. But otherwise, Lorenzen looked every bit like the All-Star that he was earlier this month.

Lorenzen allowed only one earned run in six innings against Kansas City in June. He fanned seven in that game, and will take strong confidence into Thursday’s afternoon game between these two division rivals.

According to MLB.com, veteran Zack Greinke will start Thursday’s game for the Royals. Every trip to the hill is a reminder how far Greinke has come, and how close the one-time star is to the end of his career. Greinke is back with KC on a one-year contract for what most observers suspect is his swan song. But his fastball now rarely hits 90 mph, and his only effective pitch is his patented slider.

But Greinke has been sidelined for weeks with a shoulder injury. His Thursday assignment is his return. At this point, the 200-game winner is like a living legend more than a living MLB pitcher. But, that doesn’t mean he can’t utilize his array of pitches (six usually) to baffle a lineup as easily befuddled as Detroit’s. Still, we don’t expect the quirky Greinke to go much further than four innings.

The score has gone Under in seven of the Tigers last nine games.
Detroit has outscored opponents 27-21 since the All-Star break.
In four of the Tigers six games since the break, their pitching staff has surrendered two runs or less.
The Tigers are 5-2 Straight-Up in its last 7 games on the road.
Detroit is 9-17 Against The Spread in their last 26 games against the Royals.
The Royals are 4-9 in their last 13 games ATS.
The Royals have lost 10 of their last 13 games.
The total has gone Under in 8 of KC’s last 11 games.

Young Bobby Witt Jr. is clearly the best Royals position player. In the last two weeks, he has a 913 OPS (with a .634 SLG). Witt has three doubles, two triples, and three homers in his last 10 games… Miguel Cabrera turned back the clock on Wednesday with his game-winning single to the opposite field. We know how skilled Miggy is at producing “oppo knocks,” it seems like he’s 2,000 of those as a Tiger. In his last five games, Cabrera is hitting .280 with three RBI and two hits that either won or tied the game for his teammates. Leadership: it’s not just words in the clubhouse. For Miggy, he’s still got plenty of life in his bat. The Detroit icon now has 3,131 hits, good for 22nd on the all-time MLB list, and only 10 behind Tony Gwynn.

Detroit Tigers: Moneyline (-134, FanDuel)

The Tigers should finish off this four-gamer with a win over the less-talented Royals. Lorenzen, like many on the Detroit rotation, is pitching well, mastering his primary pitches. The KC lineup is largely incapable of making adjustments, it’s that simple.

We like Detroit to win in another close game between these two clubs.

The Royals have yet to name a starting pitcher officially, although MLB.com is reporting Greinke to take the ball. As a result, FanDuel, DraftKings, Caesars, and the other Michigan sportsbooks have yet to add pitching and player props for today’s game.

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