Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers Picks, Predictions & Odds Tonight

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13 February 2024

Rudy Gobert may be known for his defensive prowess, but the French big man has also shined offensively down the stretch for Minnesota. Read more as the star center headlines our Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers betting picks.

Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

One could easily argue the Minnesota Timberwolves are ripe for a letdown after blowing out the Bucks and Clippers in the span of a week. The statement wins have seemingly righted the Timberwolves’ season after a lull the last few weeks, but a trip to visit Portland could become a trap.

Then again, the Trail Blazers have begun to enter a tailspin that will probably last through the season, losing their last four games by an average of nine points. Fittingly, that is tonight’s exact spread in the NBA odds.

If Minnesota wants to avoid stubbing its toe tonight, there is one piece of its roster that has consistently delivered this season. Fortunately, that particular post presence should have a ripe mismatch tonight, making Rudy Gobert our emphasis in our free NBA picks as we preview Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazers on February 13.

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers odds

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers predictions

The Rudy Gobert trade continues to be criticized. Maybe the Minnesota Timberwolves “overpaid,” but then again, they stand atop the Western Conference in their first season with Gobert playing alongside Karl-Anthony Towns. Something seems to be working.

Although Gobert is running away in Defensive Player of the Year odds, it is his scoring that has caught notice lately. Gobert has also averaged 16.1 points in his last 10 games while shooting 71.9% from the free throw line.

The defense is tied to the offense. Minnesota repays Gobert for his defensive effort, Mike Conley’s chemistry with the French big man is undeniable, and perhaps the most consistent piece of the Timberwolves’ offense is finding Gobert in the paint.

And that piece of offense will be particularly effective tonight. No one in the NBA gives up a worse shooting percentage at the rim than the Portland Blazers (68.2%), and opponents take plenty of shots within five feet of the rim against Portland, averaging 32.4 attempts in the paint.

In other words, Gobert’s area of offensive effectiveness is the Blazers’ greatest defensive weakness. Unsurprisingly, sportsbooks bumped up Gobert’s points prop tonight, but only by a point, and value remains at 14.5.

My best bet:Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 points (+102 at BetRivers)

Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers same-game parlay

Rudy Gobert Over 14.5 points
Mike Conley Over 6.5 assists

Timberwolves team total Over 111.5 points

There's a clear correlation between Gobert's success and Mike Conley's reliability. During the stretch of Gobert's rise, Conley has averaged 7.3 assists over 13 games, using their years as former teammates in Utah to establish a strong connection. Since recovering from a nagging hamstring issue, Conley's performance has soared even higher, dishing out 8.4 assists per game in the five games he's played without any concerns about his minutes.

If worried about the Timberwolves’ being on the second night of a back-to-back, then consider three things: Conley played only 24 minutes in last night’s blowout, a win against the Blazers has added emphasis for Minnesota given the division record could be a needed tiebreaker over the Thunder, and the All-Star Break begins in two days.

If leaning into the most consistent piece of the Timberwolves’ offense against a defense particularly vulnerable to it, then adding the Minnesota team total Over feels only logical.

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Timberwolves vs Trail Blazers spread and Over/Under analysis

Before the start of the T-Wolves game in Los Angeles last night, the spread opened with the Timberwolves as nine-point favorites.

Despite the blowout, the spread didn't fluctuate much, dropping to -8.5 by the end of the night and wavering between -8.5 and -9 on Tuesday morning. Minnesota is 2-3 against the spread on the second night of a back-to-back this season.

The total opened at 214.5 and rose as high as 216.5 late on Monday before falling to 213.5 late Tuesday morning, perhaps a public reaction to the back-to-back, skepticism in Portland, or a deserved nod to Gobert’s defensive dominance this season.

It should be noted that the Timberwolves have cashed the Over in four of their five back-to-back finales this season.