Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (8/29/23)
Happy Tuesday, everyone. I am back today with some MLB bets after writing yesterday's DFS article. What a frustrating DFS slate yesterday was. I nailed the Blake Snell and Grayson Rodriguez combo and singled out two low-owned stacks in the Mariners and Orioles and still got crushed by the Braves chalk. Let’s nail down some bets today and return to our cashing ways.
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I do not have a model with my bets, but I dig into many numbers daily to find separations or mismatches with the bets I recommend. I also doubt anyone out there watches as much baseball as I do, and the game's feel is a massive part of my picks. In this article, I'll provide my favorite betting picks for the MLB games on Tuesday, August 29, 2023. We will focus on money line bets, totals, and team totals. With all of that said, let's break down some baseball games. Follow me on Twitter @CaseyW22 for more free betting and DFS advice.
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O/U: 9 | Moneyline: SD (-148)
SD: Seth Lugo | SD: Zack Thompson
We start our action today in St. Louis with a matchup between the Padres and the Cardinals. Southpaw Zack Thompson will toe the rubber for the Cardinals. The Padres are the sixth-best team in baseball this season against left-hand pitching with a 116 wRC+. Since the All-Star break, they have a 136 wRC+ against the split. Led by Ha-Seong Kim and his 262 wRC+, the Padres have six regular players with over 125 wRC+ against left-hand pitching since the break. The Padres have enough firepower to get to Thompson here early and often.
Over the last 30 days, Thompson has allowed a .359 wOBA, .220 ISO, and a 63.9% hard hit against right-hand batters. The Padres will feature seven righties in their lineup tonight who can all do damage. Since the break, Seth Lugo is 2-2 with a 3.79 SIERA, 1.20 WHIP, 25.7% K%, and 10.7% SwStr%. He has dominated right-hand hitters to a .290 wOBA, .106 ISO, and a 21.7% K% this season. He will face six to seven right-handed hitters tonight for the Cardinals. I am going this to eliminate bullpens and take the Padres on the moneyline through the first five innings.
Pick: Padres Moneyline 1st five innings (-150) DraftKings Sportsbook
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O/U: 9 | Moneyline: KC (-155)
PIT: Luis Ortiz | KC: Cole Ragans
I want to start by saying how ridiculous Cole Ragan's price is on DraftKings tonight. I was expecting to be able to hammer his props since DraftKings on the DFS side has mispriced Ragans all season, but nope. His strikeouts come in at over 6.5, and his outs come in at over 17.5. You look at his DraftKings price, and immediately, you see $6,000. I almost want to tell you to fade him and the Braves tonight, and you can instantly play anyone you want and not worry about ownership. Okay, back to betting.
Ragans has been electric over his last five starts. He has a 2.74 SIERA, 1.18 WHIP, 36.4% K%, and a 15.5% SwStr%. He is 3-1 with a 2.12 ERA during that span. He will now face the Pittsburgh Pirates with a 69 wRC+, 24.4% K%, .277 wOBA, and a .326 SLG since the break against left-hand pitching. This has been the worst team in the big leagues in the second half of the season against the split. Yes, even worse than the Guardians. I will hammer the Royals moneyline for the first five innings and the game.
Pick: Royals Moneyline (-155) DraftKings Sportsbook
Also Consider:Mets ML (+120), Braves -2.5 (-120), Mariners -1.5 (-130), Reds ML (+124)
Good luck, Rotoballers!
