Tommy Paul vs. Daniil Medvedev odds, tips and betting trends

In the BNP Paribas Open semifinals on Saturday, Tommy Paul takes on Daniil Medvedev. Medvedev is the favorite (-280) in this matchup, compared to the underdog Paul, who is +210.

Paul enters the semifinals after winning in three sets, 6-2, 1-6, 6-3, over Casper Ruud on Thursday in the quarterfinals.

Medvedev is coming off a two-set win in his last match on Thursday in the quarterfinals over Holger Vitus Nodskov Rune (7-5, 6-4).

BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Saturday at 8:46 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.

Paul vs. Medvedev match information

• Tournament: The BNP Paribas Open
• Round: Semifinals
• Date: Saturday, March 16
• Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden
• Location: Indian Wells, California
• Court Surface: Hard

Stream tennis and other live sports by signing up for Fubo today!

• Paul has played 26.1 games per match (23.4 in best-of-three matches) in his 63 matches over the past 12 months (across all court surfaces).
• In his 42 matches on hard courts over the past 12 months, Paul has played an average of 25.2 games (22.9 in best-of-three matches).
• Paul has won 80% of his service games over the past year, and 25.8% of his return games.
• On hard courts over the past 12 months, Paul has won 26.5% of his return games and 81% of his service games.
• In terms of serve/return winning percentages over his last 10 tournaments, Paul has won 81.7% of his games on serve, and 25% on return.
• Paul has converted 39.2% of his break-point opportunities overall (192 of 490) over the past 12 months.
• Paul has converted 38.5% of his break-point chances (69 of 179) over his last 10 tournaments.

• Medvedev has played 71 matches in the past year across all court surfaces, averaging 26.6 games per match (22.4 in best-of-three matches) and winning 55.5% of those games.
• On hard courts, Medvedev has played 48 matches and averaged 26.5 games per match (22 in best-of-three matches) and 10.1 games per set.
• Medvedev has compiled a service game winning percentage of 82.2% on all surfaces (772-for-939 in service games) and a return game winning percentage of 29% (275-for-949 in return games).
• Medvedev is 525-for-632 in service games on hard courts (83.1%) and 183-for-638 in return games (28.7%).
• In terms of serve/return winning percentages over his last 10 tournaments, Medvedev has won 82.6% of his games on serve, and 28.6% on return.
• Medvedev is 159th in break point win percentage in the past year, at 44.2% after going 257-for-581.
• Including all surfaces, Medvedev has converted 42.4% of his break-point opportunities (150 of 354) over his last 10 tournaments.

• Medvedev has a 2-0 record against Paul. Their most recent meeting, at the China Open on September 29, 2023, was won by Medvedev, 6-2, 6-1.
• In six total sets against one another, Medvedev has won five, compared to Paul’s one.
• Medvedev and Paul have contested 50 total games against each other, with Medvedev taking 33.
• Paul and Medvedev are averaging 25 games and three sets in their two matches against each other.