Daniil Medvedev vs. Carlos Alcaraz odds, tips and betting trends
In the final of the BNP Paribas Open on Sunday, Daniil Medvedev (ranked No. 4) meets Carlos Alcaraz (No. 2). Alcaraz is favored to take home the tournament championship against Medvedev, with -250 odds compared to the underdog’s +190.
In his last match on Saturday, Medvedev knocked off Tommy Paul in three sets, 1-6, 7-6, 6-2, to move on past the semifinals.
Alcaraz is coming off a three-set win in his last match on Saturday in the semifinals over Jannik Sinner (1-6, 6-3, 6-2).
BetMGM Sportsbook. Odds updated Sunday at 8:45 AM ET. For a full list of sports betting odds, access USA TODAY Sports Betting Scores Odds Hub.
Medvedev vs. Alcaraz match information
- Tournament: The BNP Paribas Open
- Round: Finals
- Date: Sunday, March 17
- Venue: Indian Wells Tennis Garden
- Location: Indian Wells, California
- Court Surface: Hard
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- In his 71 matches over the past 12 months across all court surfaces, Medvedev has played an average of 26.6 games (22.4 in best-of-three matches).
- On hard courts, Medvedev has played 48 matches over the past year, totaling 26.5 games per match (22 in best-of-three matches) while winning 55.7% of games.
- Over the past year, Medvedev has won 82.2% of his service games and 29% of his return games.
- On hard courts over the past 12 months, Medvedev has won 28.7% of his return games and 83.1% of his service games.
- Medvedev has won 82.6% of his service games over his last 10 tournaments, and 28.6% of his return games.
- Including all surfaces over the past 12 months, Medvedev has converted 257 of 581 break points (44.2%).
- Including all surfaces, Medvedev has converted 42.4% of his break-point chances (150 of 354) over his last 10 tournaments.
- Alcaraz has averaged 24.9 games per match (22.1 in best-of-three matches) through his 73 matches played in the past 12 months across all court surfaces, while winning 58.0% of the games.
- Alcaraz has played 38 matches on hard courts in the past year, and has averaged 25.4 games per match (23.8 in best-of-three matches) and 10.2 games per set while winning 55.8% of games.
- Alcaraz has an 84.8% service game winning percentage and a 31.4% return game winning percentage on all surfaces in the past year.
- Alcaraz is 402-for-479 in service games on hard courts (83.9%) and 138-for-488 in return games (28.3%).
- In terms of serve/return winning percentages over his last 10 tournaments, Alcaraz has won 82.8% of his games on serve, and 27.6% on return.
- Alcaraz has won 38.6% of his break points in the past year (265 out of 687, to rank 157th).
- Including all surfaces, Alcaraz has converted 34.4% of his break-point chances (112 of 326) over his last 10 tournaments.
- Alcaraz holds a 3-2 record versus Medvedev. They last met in the Round Robin of the Nitto ATP Finals, on November 17, 2023, which was a 6-4, 6-4 victory for Alcaraz.
- Alcaraz and Medvedev have played 14 sets against one another, with Alcaraz winning eight of them.
- In 127 total games played between Alcaraz and Medvedev, Alcaraz is on top, winning 65 of them.
- Medvedev and Alcaraz have met five times, and have averaged 25.4 games and 2.8 sets per match.
