Top NHL picks January 4: Bet on big offensive night from Stars
There are three NHL games on Wednesday’s slate and we have a bet for each contest.
The pregame narrative: The New Jersey Devils are playing strong offensive hockey, which should result in plenty of goals against the defensively and goaltending-poor Detroit Red Wings. Both the Minnesota Wild and Tampa Bay Lightning have elite goaltending, putting the under in play for their game. Lastly, we’ll bet on oodles of offence from the Dallas Stars against the Anaheim Ducks.
Find our top NHL picks for January 4 below.
Odds as of 9:10 a.m. on 01/04/2023.
Go to full NHL betting markets.
NHL picks
Best Bet: Devils over 3.5 goals (-107)
New Jersey’s offence continues to produce as one of the best in the NHL, making it a nice team-total target.
The Devils ranks sixth in expected goals per 60 (3.5) over the last two weeks, according to Natural Stat Trick. They’re also tied with the New York Rangers for 13th in high-danger chances per 60 (HDCF/60) during this time with 12.79.
Their ability to generate quality looks is why they’ve scored 16 goals across their last five outings.
The Red Wings, on the other hand, are playing poorly in their own zone. They’re tied for allowing the eighth-most expected goals per 60 (3.39) over the last 14 days. Goaltending isn’t bailing them out, either, as they have the fifth-worst team save percentage (.874) in the league in the same time frame.
New Jersey has scored four or more goals in three of its last five, and we’re betting on more of the same on Wednesday.
Key stat: Detroit has allowed four or more goals in six of its last seven.
Quick picks
Lightning vs. Wild under 6.5 goals (-115): Tampa Bay and Minnesota are getting great goaltending and it’ll likely be hard for either offence to find the back of the net.
The Lightning rank fourth in team save percentage with a mark of .919 over the last two weeks. That’s largely due to the play of Andrei Vasilevskiy, who owns a .942 save percentage across his last 12 starts. He’ll likely start since the backup, Brian Elliott, tended twine on Tuesday.
The Wild are sixth in team save percentage (.915) during the same time. Filip Gustavsson starts for Minnesota and he has a .941 save percentage across his last five appearances.
Stars over 3.5 goals (-114): When one of the best offensive teams in the NHL faces one of the worst defensive squads, it’s usually wise to bet the over on their team total.
Dallas leads the NHL in expected goals per 60 (4) over the last two weeks. It has scored four-plus goals in three of its last five. Anaheim ranks 31st in expected goals against per 60 (4) during the same span, allowing four-plus goals in back-to-back outings and four of its last six.
