Toronto Blue Jays vs Minnesota Twins Odds for Game 1 & Wild Card Series

Odds as of Oct. 2 at DraftKings Sportsbook. Claim a DraftKings sign-up promo code or read the DraftKings review.

The other half of the AL playoffs sees the #4 Tampa Bay Rays hosting the #5 Texas Rangers for the right to face top-seeded Baltimore in the ALDS. Toronto (+1614) and Minnesota (+1757) are eighth and ninth, respectively, in the World Series odds and fourth and sixth in the AL Pennant odds.  The Blue Jays/Twins odds are the narrowest of the odds for all the Wild Card series.

TOR vs MIN Game 1 Probable Starting Pitchers

Last last week, Twins brass announced that Pablo Lopez would start Game 1 of their Wild Card series, though they didn’t yet know their opponent at that point. Toronto will almost certainly hand the ball to ace Kevin Gausman in Tuesday’s MLB lineups.

The expected starters have similar numbers, including identical 3.4 WAR.

Kevin Gausman vs Pablo Lopez

Gausman has a decent track record against the Minnesota lineup he’ll be facing on Tuesday, but there is certainly room for improvement.  Twins hitters are slashing .239/.314/.380 against Gausman with three homers and four doubles in 92 total at-bats.

Lopez has a more concerning history against Jays batters. Toronto’s lineup is slashing .268/.328/.589 against the former Marlin with four homers, two doubles, and two triples in just 56 at-bats.

Lopez faced the Blue Jays once this season, getting tagged for four earned runs on five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings while striking out six. The Twins ultimately won the game (9-7) but it was not one of Lopez’s better starts this season.

Gausman faced the Twins twice in the regular season; one start was solid and one was a disaster. In late May, he went 5.1 innings surrendering just one run in a 4-1 Toronto victory (though he did concede four hits and issued a season-worst five walks). Two weeks later, he allowed six runs on seven hits over just 4.2 innings of work in  a 7-6 Jays win.

Blue Jays vs Twins Game 1 Prediction & Pick

Tuesday’s starters come in with starkly different recent results. Gausman has recorded back-to-back scoreless starts, both against the Yankees. Cumulatively, he gave up just six hits and five walks over 13 innings of work in that span while striking out 15.

Lopez on the other hand has surrendered at least three earned runs (at 11 total) over his past three starts (15.1 innings), and that came against rather subpar competition (White Sox, Angels, Athletics). Going back to mid-August, his ERA rose from 3.51 to 3.66 over his final seven starts of the season and he surrendered 46 hits over 41.1 innings pitched. While he’s had six days’ rest since his last start, the 27 year old has also logged more innings this season than ever before in his career.  He faded down the stretch last year, as well, recording a 5.33 ERA in September 2022, compared to 3.75 for the season as a whole.

For his career, Gausman has a 3.49 ERA in September and October, which is actually lower than his lifetime mark of 3.84.

With young Lopez clearly feeling the fatigue of a 162-game season, look for veteran Gausman to stake his Blue Jays to a Game 1 lead, at least over the first half of the ballgame.

Blue Jays vs Twins pick: Blue Jays moneyline first 5 innings (-110)